Market Overview for Sei/Yen (SEIJPY)

Summary
• Price opened at $25.64 and closed at $24.98 after a bearish 24-hour session.
• Volatility spiked mid-day with a 1.05% intraday drop to $25.53.
• Volume surged at 18:15 ET as sellers overwhelmed buyers.
• RSI entered oversold territory near 28, suggesting potential near-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands tightened during quiet overnight hours.

The Sei/Yen pair (SEIJPY) opened at 25.64 on 2025-11-06 at 12:00 ET−1 and closed at 24.98 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 26.05 and a low of 24.98 over the 24-hour period. Total traded volume reached 145,577.0, with a notional turnover of approximately $3,680,000 (assuming average price of ~25.30). The pair experienced a clear bearish bias, with price dropping nearly 2.6% over the session.

Structure & Formations

A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed around 19:00 ET as price gapped down from 26.05 to 25.86 in one 15-minute candle. Price found resistance near 26.05 during the afternoon, failing to reclaim it for the rest of the session. A key support level emerged near 25.00–25.10 after multiple tests overnight. A doji formed at 02:45 ET, indicating indecision and potential reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA moved lower in tandem, with the 20SMA crossing below the 50SMA in a bearish death cross. The 50-period daily SMA sits at ~25.25, while the 200SMA is near 25.00—indicating that price may be consolidating near key long-term support.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line dropped sharply after 18:15 ET, confirming the bearish momentum. RSI has dipped into oversold territory (~28) and may hint at a near-term bounce. However, RSI’s failure to close above 40 during the bounce attempts suggests that the bearish trend remains intact.

Backtest Hypothesis

To backtest this strategy effectively, we would need to clarify the position side (long vs. short), the support definition for exit rules (e.g., 20-day SMA or swing-low), and the universe of symbols (e.g., single pair or broader index). Once these are defined, we can automate the detection of bearish engulfing patterns, apply the specified exit rules, and evaluate performance from 2022-01-01 to present.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands tightened during the overnight session, signaling potential consolidation. Price broke below the 20-period lower band during the early morning, indicating heightened bearish pressure. A reversal above the mid-band at ~25.15 could signal a temporary bounce, though it would likely lack momentum.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 18:15 ET with 54,133.0 units traded—a 4x increase compared to prior candles—suggesting strong selling pressure. Turnover also spiked during this period, confirming the price drop. Divergence between late-night volume and price action implies traders are testing the 25.00–25.10 support zone without conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the 19:00 ET bearish engulfing candle (26.05 to 25.86) highlight key levels near 25.96 (38.2%) and 25.91 (61.8%). These levels acted as minor resistance during the bounce attempts. On a larger scale, the 61.8% retracement of the morning high of 26.05 lies near 25.35, a potential near-term support target.

Forward-looking, the pair appears to be consolidating near 25.00–25.10, with a potential bounce into 25.25–25.30 as a possible near-term target. However, a break below 24.98 could open the door to 24.75–24.80. Traders should remain cautious of further downside risk, especially with RSI in oversold but not yet overextended territory.