Market Overview for Sei/Yen (SEIJPY)

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• SEIJPY opened at 43.20 and closed at 42.99 after a 24-hour swing reaching 44.46 and falling to 42.86.
• A strong bearish reversal formed near 44.27, followed by a deep pullback and fading momentum.
• Volatility expanded through mid-session before consolidating toward the close.
• Volume spiked during the initial bullish phase but waned as bears retook control.
• RSI entered oversold territory toward the end, suggesting potential for a rebound or consolidation.

Price Action and Formations

Sei/Yen (SEIJPY) opened at 43.20 on October 2, 2025, and surged to an intraday high of 44.46 by 20:00 ET. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 44.27, marking the first pivot point of the day. From there, the price retreated sharply and closed at 42.99 at 12:00 ET on October 3. The candlestick structure shows a bearish bias, with a long upper wick and a shrinking lower wick as the session progressed.

Key support levels appear around 43.20, 42.99, and possibly 42.86, which was the 24-hour low. Resistance levels to watch include the 44.27 area and 44.46. The market appears to be consolidating near the lower end of its range, with a high probability of a bounce or sideways movement ahead.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages (20MA and 50MA) crossed bearishly in the early hours of the session, reinforcing the downward trend. The price closed below both moving averages, indicating a short-term bearish setup. For daily traders, the 50/100/200-day moving averages would have shown a flattening or bearish bias over the longer term, consistent with the recent price action.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned bearish early in the session, with a clear bearish crossover in the 16:00–17:00 ET timeframe. The histogram showed increasing bearish momentum before the 20:00 ET peak, then declined as the price pulled back. RSI dropped below 30 toward the end of the session, entering oversold territory, which may signal a potential bounce or a short-term reversal.

The RSI remains near the 30–40 range, which is typical for a consolidating market, so the next 24 hours could see either a breakout from this range or a continuation of the bearish pressure.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded sharply after 16:00 ET, with the price breaking above the upper Bollinger Band before retreating back inside the channel. The bands widened during the session, reflecting increased uncertainty in the market. By the end of the session, the price closed near the lower band at 42.99, indicating a low-volatility phase and potential for a rebound.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked during the initial bullish phase around 18:00–19:30 ET, peaking at 8542 units and 8542 in turnover. However, volume declined significantly during the bearish pullback, with the largest bearish volume at 11259 units during the 11:15 ET candle. This divergence suggests a weakening bullish conviction and a possible exhaustion in the short-term buyers.

The decline in turnover also reflects reduced liquidity or participation, which could delay a strong rebound. A follow-up increase in volume and turnover would be needed to confirm any reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent swing from 42.86 to 44.46, key retracement levels include 38.2% at ~43.69, 50% at ~43.66, and 61.8% at ~43.59. The price has since pulled back past these levels, indicating that the 61.8% level has failed as a support and the market is now testing the 43.20–42.99 zone.

Daily Fibonacci levels for the broader move would also show similar bearish retracement levels, reinforcing the near-term bearish structure.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish engulfing pattern, oversold RSI, and declining volume, a potential backtest hypothesis could focus on a long-term reversal breakout setup. A buy entry could be triggered if the price closes above the 44.27 resistance level with a confirmed break above the 20MA and 50MA, while a stop-loss could be placed below 43.20. The target could be the 43.69–43.75 Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level, with a trailing stop to lock in profits as the market consolidates or rallies. This hypothesis integrates the use of candlestick patterns, moving averages, and Fibonacci levels to manage entry, stop, and exit points.