Market Overview: Sei/Yen (SEIJPY) – 24-Hour Technical Snapshot

• SEIJPY traded lower in 24 hours, closing near a key support area after a sharp midday pullback.
• A bearish engulfing pattern emerged near 29.93–29.99, aligning with RSI entering oversold territory around 12:00 ET.
• Volatility expanded in early morning trade, with Bollinger Bands widening and volume surging near the 24-hour low.
• Fibonacci 61.8% retracement at 29.28 acted as a short-term floor, while 50-period MA on the 15-min chart crossed bearish.
• A potential reversal setup is forming near 29.30–29.40, with volume divergence and a stalled bearish move.

Sei/Yen (SEIJPY) opened at 29.53 on 2025-10-23 at 12:00 ET and traded to a high of 30.52 before closing at 29.84 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-10-24. The pair touched a low of 29.04 during the 24-hour window. Total volume across the period was 197,151.0, and notional turnover amounted to approximately 5,821,255.0.

Structure & Formations

The price of SEIJPY formed a classic bearish engulfing pattern during the early morning hours on October 24, with a strong bearish candle engulfing the preceding bullish candle. This occurred in tandem with RSI dipping below 30, signaling an oversold condition and potential reversal. The 29.93–29.99 consolidation acted as a key turning point, while Fibonacci retracement levels at 29.28 and 29.40 became significant in defining short-term support. A stalled bearish move from the 30.52 high suggests a possible retest of 29.30–29.40 before further downside.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both crossed bearish during the overnight session, indicating a shift in short-term momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA remains above the 100-period and 200-period MAs, suggesting a more neutral to bearish bias in the near term. Price action has pulled back below the 20-period MA, reinforcing the potential for further consolidation or bearish extension in the coming hours.

MACD & RSI

RSI entered oversold territory around 12:00 ET and has since rebounded but not decisively above 30. MACD remains in negative territory with a flattening signal line, suggesting waning bearish momentum. While RSI could see a short-term bounce, MACD shows little sign of a bullish crossover, indicating that any rally may be short-lived and range-bound.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the early morning trade as volatility increased. The price closed just below the 20-period lower band on the 15-minute chart, indicating a strong bearish move. A contraction in band width is expected if the price stabilizes near the 29.30–29.40 zone, signaling a potential reversal. However, a break below the 29.28 Fibonacci level could trigger a further expansion in volatility.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the midday sell-off on October 24, especially near the 29.04 low, confirming the bearish move. However, volume has since declined, indicating a potential exhaustion of the downward trend. Turnover increased in tandem with price declines, especially around 29.04 and 29.31, suggesting active participation in the bearish move. Divergence between volume and price near 29.30–29.40 may hint at a potential reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 29.04 to 30.52, key levels at 29.28 (61.8%) and 29.40 (50%) have held as crucial support zones. A retest of 29.28 is likely before a potential bounce occurs, while 29.40 could act as an initial target for short-term buyers. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement at 29.14 remains a critical psychological level that may influence further direction.

Backtest Hypothesis

The combination of the Bearish Engulfing pattern and RSI entering oversold territory has historically aligned with bearish continuation and reversal signals. In the case of SEIJPY, the pattern formed on October 24 at 29.93–29.99, with RSI confirming the oversold condition. Selling at the close of the signal candle would have captured the subsequent pullback toward 29.04. Given the current positioning near 29.30–29.40 and the divergence in volume, this setup may present a favorable opportunity for bearish traders to act, provided the price remains below the 29.45–29.50 resistance level.