Market Overview for Sei/Yen (SEIJPY) - 24-Hour Summary

• SEIJPY surged 15.6% over the past 24 hours, breaking above prior resistance levels at 43.94 and 44.13.
• High-volume bullish breakout observed at 0345 ET with a candle closing at 43.94 and a high of 44.53.
• Volatility expanded significantly during the early morning hours, with Bollinger Bands widening.
• RSI reached overbought territory at ~75, while MACD crossed into positive territory with a bullish histogram.
• Volume saw a sharp peak of 13,123 units at 0345 ET, confirming the upward price move.

At 12:00 ET on October 9, SEIJPY opened at 42.1 and closed at 41.56 by 12:00 ET October 10, with an intraday high of 44.53 and low of 40.97. Total volume reached 126,884 units, while notional turnover (amount) reached 6,998 units. The pair exhibited a strong bullish bias during the overnight session, with a sharp break above key resistance levels.

Structure & Formations

The chart shows a clear bullish breakout above the 43.94–44.13 resistance zone, with a 15-minute bullish engulfing pattern observed at 0345 ET. A high-volume candle confirmed the breakout. A doji formed at 1530 ET as the price declined sharply to 41.8, suggesting indecision following the prior bullish momentum. The 43.94–44.13 level now acts as strong support, with a potential counterattack expected.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-EMA and 50-EMA were in bullish alignment, with price above both. On the daily chart, the 50-EMA is at 43.20, and the 100- and 200-EMA are below, suggesting the recent bullish move is likely to outperform the longer-term trend. Price has closed above all three, signaling a temporary bullish trend reversal.

MACD & RSI

The 12-period MACD crossed into positive territory with a strong histogram, confirming upward momentum. RSI reached overbought territory (~75) around 0400 ET, suggesting potential consolidation. A reversal signal could come if RSI dips below 60 while volume remains strong. MACD may provide early confirmation of momentum fading if it flattens.

Backtest Hypothesis

A possible backtesting strategy involves entering long positions when the 15-minute MACD line crosses above the signal line and RSI crosses above 50, with a stop loss placed below the recent 15-minute low. This setup was confirmed in the early morning hours and could have yielded a strong short-term move. However, a sharp retracement at 1530 ET highlights the need for trailing stops or risk management tools to protect gains.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded sharply during the breakout at 0345 ET, indicating increased volatility. Price traded outside the upper band briefly, confirming the strength of the move. The recent pullback has brought price back inside the bands, with the midline at ~43.75. A break below the lower band would signal a potential reversal, while a retest of the upper band could confirm continuation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 13,123 units at 0345 ET with the bullish breakout, confirming the move. However, volume declined during the afternoon pullback, suggesting weaker conviction in the bearish move. Notional turnover also dipped during the decline, indicating lower participation. A repeat of the early morning volume pattern on a bearish move could signal a reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute high of 44.53 and low of 40.97, the 38.2% and 61.8% levels are at 43.57 and 42.59 respectively. Price has tested the 38.2% level twice, with the 61.8% acting as potential support. A break below 42.59 would suggest a deeper retracement could be in play.

The near-term outlook for SEIJPY remains bullish in the short term, particularly if the 43.94–44.13 level holds as support and volume remains strong on any retests. However, a break below 42.59 could trigger a deeper correction, especially if RSI falls below 50 with increasing volume. Investors should monitor key moving averages and watch for divergence in the MACD to time potential entries or exits.