Market Overview: Sei/Yen (SEIJPY) - 24-Hour Analysis

Summary
• Price surged from 26.42 to 27.67 amid strong volume in late ET hours.
• Bullish momentum confirmed by RSI and MACD with no overbought signal.
• Volatility widened, with Bollinger Bands showing expansion.

The Sei/Yen pair (SEIJPY) opened at 26.42 on 2025-11-12 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 27.67 by 06:15 ET the following day. It closed at 27.64 on 2025-11-13 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume totaled 220,716.0 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $5.88 million. The market exhibited a strong upward bias, driven by sustained buying pressure in the early morning hours.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a strong bullish pattern in the final hours of the session, with a 15-minute Bullish Engulfing candle at 06:15–06:30 ET confirming a reversal. Resistance levels emerged at 27.67 and 27.57, while support was observed at 27.35 and 27.16. A key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 27.20 provided psychological support earlier in the session, which was decisively breached on the upside.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA in the late morning hours, confirming a short-term bullish bias. The 50-period MA is currently rising through 27.00, and the 200-period MA on the daily chart remains in support at 26.90. The 50/200 MA crossover on the daily chart has not yet occurred, indicating potential for a longer-term trend continuation.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a bullish crossover in the early hours, with a strong positive histogram peaking around 06:00–07:00 ET. RSI climbed from 52 to 68, signaling rising momentum but not yet overbought territory. This suggests further upside is possible but may face resistance before reaching overbought levels.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly in the early hours, indicating heightened volatility. Price closed near the upper band at 27.67, suggesting bullish exhaustion is not yet at hand. A potential pullback could test the 27.35–27.40 level, where the lower band is currently located.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged in the 06:00–08:00 ET window, reaching a peak of 73,449 units at 06:15 ET. Notional turnover spiked alongside this, reaching $2.01 million in the same period. Price and volume aligned well in the bullish breakout, supporting the validity of the move.

Fibonacci Retracements

A 15-minute swing from 26.73 to 27.49 showed key Fibonacci levels at 27.26 (38.2%) and 27.38 (61.8%). The 61.8% level at 27.38 acted as a minor resistance before price broke through to new highs. On the daily chart, a major 61.8% retracement level at 27.16 provided support earlier in the day.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy leverages the Bullish Engulfing pattern to identify potential entry points. By holding positions for a fixed 10 trading days, it assumes a continuation bias in a trending environment—conditions currently supported by the bullish momentum in SEIJPY. Future performance will depend on how well the pattern correlates with broader market sentiment and liquidity. A more refined approach could incorporate stop-loss and take-profit levels, as well as a comparison to a benchmark index, for risk-adjusted performance analysis.