Market Overview for Sei/Yen (SEIJPY): 24-Hour Analysis

• Price formed a bearish reversal after reaching a 24-hour high of 44.31 before settling near 43.17.
• Volatility expanded midday with a Bollinger Band breach, followed by a consolidation phase.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions in the afternoon, but momentum failed to confirm higher prices.
• Notional turnover spiked at 43.97 and 43.43, coinciding with key support/resistance levels.
• A 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern formed at 43.75, hinting at short-term bearish bias.

The Sei/Yen pair (SEIJPY) opened at 43.38 on October 7 at 12:00 ET and closed at 43.17 on October 8 at 12:00 ET, after touching a high of 44.31 and a low of 42.42. Total volume over the 24-hour period was approximately 177,864 units, with a notional turnover of $7,761,711 (assuming SEIJPY = USDJPY). The price action reflects a volatile but ultimately bearish 24-hour session, marked by sharp pullbacks after brief rallies.

Structure & Formations

SEIJPY established a key resistance area around the 43.97–44.0 level, where multiple 15-minute candles showed failed bullish attempts, including a false break and a spinning top pattern. A bearish engulfing pattern developed at 43.75, confirming a potential short-term reversal. Support levels appear to be holding at 43.43 (50-period 15-min MA), with a critical test at 43.15 observed in the early morning. A doji at 43.05 and a morning rally into 43.30 suggest possible buying interest, though bearish momentum has since reasserted.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

The 15-minute chart shows the 20-period MA at 43.44 and the 50-period MA at 43.48, with price consolidating below both, indicating bearish bias. MACD crossed below the zero line mid-morning, signaling bearish momentum. RSI entered overbought territory in the afternoon (up to 66.2), but failed to follow through on a close above 44.0, showing divergence. On the daily chart, 50-period MA is at 43.33 and the 200-period MA at 43.25, with price currently aligned between them, indicating a potential pivot point for direction.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility spiked in the late afternoon as the price briefly breached the upper Bollinger Band at 44.0. This was followed by a contraction phase from 10:00 to 11:45 ET, with price settling back within the bands by midday. The consolidation suggests a potential breakout or reversal setup. The lower band held at 43.17–43.15 in the morning, coinciding with a 15-minute doji and a key support level. A breakout below 43.15 could see price test the 42.85–42.76 levels, which were briefly tested before a rebound.

Volume and Turnover

Volume was particularly active at key inflection points. The 15-minute candles at 43.97 and 43.43 saw volumes of 2138 and 5319, respectively, suggesting order-block accumulation and rejection. However, a divergence between price and volume was observed at 43.15 and 43.05, where price rallied but with low volume, hinting at weak conviction. Turnover was highest during the 43.97–44.0 cluster, confirming resistance, but failed to confirm bullish continuation after 43.43.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the key swing high (44.31) and low (42.42), the 38.2% retracement is at 43.88 and the 61.8% at 43.17—both aligning with 15-minute key levels. The price has tested 43.17 multiple times and may find further support at 42.76 (next 23.6% level), or bearish continuation at 42.61 if the trend intensifies.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could focus on the bearish engulfing pattern seen at 43.75 and the RSI divergence from 44.0. The setup involves entering a short position on a close below 43.72 with a stop above 43.85 and a target at 43.43, then rolling the position down to 43.17 on a break of 43.43. This approach could be tested on a broader historical dataset to evaluate win rate, reward-risk ratio, and overall robustness. Given the convergence of key technical indicators—MACD, RSI, and Fibonacci levels—this strategy could serve as a model for trend-following bias in SEIJPY’s volatile 15-minute timeframe.