Market Overview: Sei/Yen (SEIJPY) on 2025-12-17

Summary
• Price formed a key bullish engulfing pattern near 18.15, suggesting short-term buying interest.
• Volatility spiked overnight with a 26% range from 18.54 to 18.13, indicating increased market participation.
• RSI hit oversold levels below 30 twice, suggesting potential for a near-term rebound.
• High volume at 18.15 confirmed the support level, with 34,230 units traded at that level.
• Bollinger Bands showed a recent contraction before the break below the lower band, indicating a potential trend shift.

The Sei/Yen (SEIJPY) pair opened at 18.76 and traded between 18.13 and 18.66 before closing at 18.14 at 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour volume reached 236,862 units, with a turnover of approximately $4,263,552. Price action has shown increased volatility and a potential pivot at 18.15.

Structure & Formations

A bullish engulfing pattern formed near 18.15 in the early hours, with a close above the prior bearish candle’s body, indicating a potential reversal. A doji appeared at 09:00 ET, signaling indecision near 18.08. Key support appears to have held at 18.13–18.15, with price rebounding twice from this range. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average currently sits above the 200-period, indicating a possible shift toward bullish momentum.

Moving Averages

On the 5-minute chart, price spent much of the day below the 20 and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing a bearish bias. However, a recent close above the 20-period MA at 14:00 ET suggests short-term momentum may be improving. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA (50D) is above the 200-period MA, signaling a potential bullish crossover and trend reversal.

Momentum Indicators

The RSI hit oversold territory twice (below 30), most notably at 05:30 ET and again at 08:15 ET, with strong volume confirming the 05:30 ET rebound. MACD showed a bearish crossover early in the day but has since shown a potential bullish cross near the end of the 24-hour window, suggesting mixed momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly overnight, with Bollinger Bands widening after a period of contraction. Price spent much of the day in the lower half of the bands, breaking below the lower band at 01:45 ET before a rebound. The 18.15–18.18 range appears to be the new equilibrium, with price hovering near the middle of the bands in the last few hours.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 05:30 ET with 32,330 units traded as price tested 18.21, and again at 14:00 ET with 16,367 units as price bounced above 18.23. Turnover at 18.15 was 34,230 units, confirming the level as a potential pivot. Divergence occurred between a lower low in price and higher volume at 08:15 ET, indicating potential short-term strength.

Fibonacci Retracements

A key 61.8% retracement level from the overnight high at 18.54 to the low at 18.13 appears at 18.29. Price is currently below this level, suggesting it could act as a resistance if bulls regain control. On the daily chart, a 38.2% retracement of a recent upward move sits at 18.46, which has so far held as a minor resistance.

The pair may see a test of the 18.20–18.23 resistance area in the next 24 hours, where a breakout could confirm a short-term bullish reversal. However, volatility remains high, and a retest of the 18.13–18.15 support zone could still occur if momentum wanes. Investors should monitor volume and MACD crossovers for directional clarity.