Market Overview for Sei/Yen (SEIJPY): 2025-11-13 to 2025-11-14

Summary
• SEIJPY opened at 26.64 and closed at 24.95, posting a sharp intraday decline.
• Volume spiked to 58,937 lots during the 04:45 ET session.
• RSI and MACD signaled bearish momentum; 20/50 SMA on 15-min chart confirmed downward trend.
• Bollinger Bands showed a wide expansion as volatility surged.
• Turnover diverged from price during the 05:15–06:45 ET window, suggesting potential exhaustion.

Sei/Yen (SEIJPY) opened at 26.64 at 12:00 ET − 1 and recorded a high of 26.64, a low of 24.83, and a close of 24.95 at 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 58,937 lots, with turnover hitting 1,499,126.5 (calculated using high × volume). The 24-hour chart shows a bearish reversal with strong short-term pressure.

The 15-minute chart reveals a breakdown below key support at 25.50, confirming bearish momentum. A 20-period and 50-period moving average both trended downward, with price action below both. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 04:45 ET, and a doji formed near the 25.50 level, suggesting indecision. The 50-period SMA appears to be acting as a dynamic resistance.

MACD turned negative, with a bearish crossover evident in the last few hours. RSI dropped to 28, signaling oversold territory. However, divergence between RSI and price during the 05:15–06:45 ET window suggests momentum may be waning. Bollinger Bands widened sharply as volatility surged, with price near the lower band—highlighting a high-risk short-term trade environment.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the 26.64 high to the 24.83 low show critical levels at 25.59 (38.2%) and 25.24 (61.8%). Volume surged at 04:45 ET as the price broke below 25.50, confirming the bearish breakout. However, the lack of follow-through volume post-06:00 ET suggests distribution could be in play.

A backtesting strategy could use the RSI signal at the 25.50 level, where RSI < 30, as an entry trigger. Given the divergence in the 05:15–06:45 window and the formation of a doji at 25.50, an RSI-based entry rule could align with the observed behavior. A 5-day holding period would allow the trade to capture potential mean reversion or continuation depending on broader market conditions. If confirmed with additional data, this could be a viable strategy for a range of crypto pairs.