Market Overview for Sei/Yen (SEIJPY) – 2025-11-01

• Price fell to 29.29 before rebounding to close near 29.51, showing bearish pressure followed by stabilizing demand.
• Volume spiked above 19,000 units during the 24-hour period, with notable buying seen in the early morning hours.
• RSI and MACD suggest overbought conditions are absent, but momentum remains mixed as price consolidates.
• A key support at 29.3 and resistance at 29.62 defined a volatile range, with price failing to break above key levels.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the price drop, highlighting a period of increased volatility before narrowing.

The 24-hour period for Sei/Yen (SEIJPY) began with an open at 30.04 and traded as high as 30.1 before dropping to a low of 29.29. The pair closed at 29.51, marking a bearish trend. Total volume for the period was 95,903.0 units, with a notional turnover of approximately 2,827,000 Yen.

The price action reflected a volatile session characterized by a sharp drop after 19:00 ET, where it fell nearly 500 pips, followed by a gradual recovery that failed to reclaim prior highs. The session also featured a number of candlestick patterns, including a bearish engulfing pattern during the drop, as well as a doji around the 29.51 closing level, suggesting indecision.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were positioned below the current price, indicating a bearish bias in the short term. However, the 50-period moving average showed signs of catching up to the price, suggesting that a potential reversal or consolidation phase may be near. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period moving averages are aligned to the downside, reinforcing the bearish momentum.

MACD showed a bearish crossover with the signal line crossing above the histogram in the morning, which aligned with the price drop. RSI, while not reaching overbought territory, remained in the mid-range, indicating a neutral-to-bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands expanded during the drop and have since begun to contract, signaling a potential period of consolidation ahead. The price closed near the upper Bollinger Band, suggesting that volatility may remain elevated.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent swing high at 30.1 to the swing low at 29.29 placed key support at 29.36 (38.2%) and 29.3 (61.8%). Price found support at 29.36 in the early morning session but failed to hold above it. Resistance remains at 29.62 and 29.76, with a break above these levels potentially signaling a bullish continuation. The volume profile showed significant buying pressure between 01:00 and 03:00 ET, coinciding with the initial recovery phase, which could indicate accumulation at lower levels.

Volume and notional turnover showed a pronounced spike during the price drop, with over 26,000 units traded and over 780,000 Yen of turnover recorded around 19:00–20:00 ET. The subsequent increase in buying pressure from 01:00 to 03:00 ET confirmed a degree of stability but did not result in a sustained bullish breakout. The divergence between volume and price action suggests that while the move lower was strong, the rebound may not yet have enough conviction to drive a sustained rally.

Backtest Hypothesis

A proposed backtest strategy seeks to identify and act on Bullish Engulfing candlestick patterns for the SEIJPY pair. However, an internal error from the data provider prevents automated execution. This suggests either a mismatch in the ticker identifier or the need for manual input of the Bullish Engulfing signal dates. To proceed with the backtest over a 3-day-hold period, confirmation of the correct trading symbol or the specific calendar dates of Bullish Engulfing occurrences is required. If provided, the strategy could be validated using the current volume and price structure observed in the recent volatility and range-bound action.