Market Overview for Sei/Yen (SEIJPY) on 2025-10-09

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• Price opened at 43.34, rose to 44.66, fell to 41.99, and closed at 41.99 by 12:00 ET.
• A sharp 15-minute retracement at 05:45 ET marked a key resistance level at 44.15.
• Volatility spiked during the 19:00–20:00 ET session, with a range of 0.75 and high turnover.
• Divergence between price and volume is evident in the final 5 hours, suggesting weakening momentum.
• RSI fell below 30 in the last hour, suggesting potential oversold conditions.

Price Action and Key Levels

Sei/Yen (SEIJPY) opened at 43.34 on 2025-10-08 at 12:00 ET and closed at 41.99 on 2025-10-09 at the same time, recording a 24-hour high of 44.66 and a low of 41.99. Total trading volume amounted to 195,956.0, while notional turnover reached 8,472,590.0. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed around 19:00–20:30 ET, as the price moved from 44.66 to 43.97, signaling a potential reversal. Key support levels appear at 43.28 and 42.74, with 43.28 acting as a short-term floor.

Structure & Formations

Throughout the day, the price tested multiple key levels, notably 44.15 and 43.28, which served as pivots. A strong bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 19:00–19:15 ET, with a 0.51-point drop, indicating a shift in sentiment. A morning doji at 04:00 ET suggested indecision, while the 05:45 ET candle, which closed at 43.85 after opening at 43.96, showed a bearish reversal. The 43.28 level was tested twice, showing initial resilience before a final breakdown.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart suggest a bearish bias, with the 20-period line dipping below the 50-period during the final 3 hours. The 50-period daily moving average is at 43.92, while the 200-period sits at 43.77, suggesting the pair is slightly below its longer-term average. A crossover of the 50-period MA and a break below 42.59 may signal deeper bearish momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bearish after 20:00 ET, with the histogram showing increasing negative divergence, aligning with the price drop. The RSI dipped below 30 at 10:45 ET and held there through the close, suggesting the pair is oversold. However, the divergence between volume and price in the final 5 hours raises questions about the strength of this bounce. A rebound from the 41.99 level could see a test of the 42.59–42.74 range, but a break below that would signal a potential 41.45 target.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded notably during the 19:00–20:30 ET period, with the price reaching the upper band at 44.66. The lower band sat at 42.93 by the close. The price spent the final 6 hours within the bands, indicating a consolidation phase. A contraction of the bands in the next 24 hours may suggest a potential breakout, with the RSI and MACD suggesting the direction is more likely bearish.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 19:00–20:30 ET session, with the largest 15-minute volume (23,671.0) at 22:30 ET. Turnover was strong during this period as well, but volume and turnover began to diverge after 07:00 ET, as price continued to fall with less conviction. The final 5-hour period showed low turnover despite significant price moves, suggesting reduced institutional interest or a possible accumulation phase ahead.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the recent high of 44.66 and low of 41.99 show 43.41 as the 38.2% level and 42.74 as the 61.8% level. The 42.74 level was briefly tested and held during the 03:15–03:45 ET period before the final drop. A rebound from 41.99 would likely test the 38.2% level first, with a potential 43.41–43.50 target. A break below 41.99 would signal a potential 41.45 target in the next 24–48 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy could be constructed based on the observed divergence between volume and price in the final 5 hours. A hypothetical long entry could be placed on a close above 42.59, with a stop-loss at 42.39 and a target at 43.41. A short entry could be triggered on a close below 42.39, with a stop at 42.59 and a target at 41.45. The bearish engulfing pattern and oversold RSI suggest a higher probability of a short-term bounce, but the divergence in the last 5 hours implies caution around a potential false recovery.