Market Overview for Sei/Yen (SEIJPY) as of 2025-10-05 12:00 ET

• • •
• Price surged from 42.03 to 44.49, forming a bullish pattern with volume spiking at the top of the move.
• RSI shows overbought conditions, suggesting short-term consolidation could follow.
• Bollinger Bands expanded as volatility increased, with price testing the upper band.
• Volume and turnover aligned with bullish price action, reinforcing move validity.
• Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level at 43.68 is currently a key support/resistance zone.

Market Summary

The Sei/Yen (SEIJPY) pair opened at 42.03 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET and closed at 43.67 on 2025-10-05 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range was 42.03 to 44.49, with total volume traded at 194,290.0 units and a notional turnover of 8,475,283.00 SEIJPY. Price action shows a strong upward bias, supported by increased volume and a clear breakout above key levels.

Structure & Formations

Price has been consolidating and testing key support levels since the morning, with a clear breakout above 43.68 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) in the early afternoon. A bullish engulfing pattern formed around 03:15 ET, confirming a reversal from earlier bearish pressure. A key resistance level appears at 44.49, coinciding with the intraday high and a prior bearish divergence point on the RSI. A strong rejection of this level could signal a short-term correction.

Moving Averages and Volatility

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both in bullish alignment, with price holding above both. The 50-period MA at 43.53 and 20-period MA at 43.83 reinforce a strong upward bias. On the daily chart, the 50-day and 200-day MAs have been trending higher, suggesting the pair remains in a multi-day uptrend. Bollinger Bands have expanded significantly, indicating increased volatility and potential mean reversion or consolidation ahead.

Momentum and RSI

RSI has surged into overbought territory, reaching 75 around 08:30 ET before slightly retreating. This overbought condition may trigger a pullback or consolidation phase. MACD remains positive, with the line above the signal line and both above zero, indicating sustained bullish momentum. A bearish crossover or a flattening MACD line could signal weakening momentum and a short-term pullback.

Volume and Turnover

Volume and turnover spiked during the intraday high at 44.49, confirming the strength of the move. However, a divergence between price and RSI suggests caution. The highest volume occurred around 08:15–08:30 ET when the pair reached its peak, indicating strong buying pressure but also a potential exhaustion point. A sharp drop in volume during a potential pullback could indicate weak follow-through and an increase in bearish sentiment.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 24-hour range, key levels at 43.68 (61.8%) and 44.15 (50%) are currently in focus. The 61.8% level has been a pivot point and is currently being tested. A break above 44.15 could lead to a test of 44.49, the 38.2% retracement level. On the downside, 43.68 is a critical support zone, and a break below this could see a test of 43.35 (38.2% of the daily move).

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong 15-minute bullish pattern and alignment of RSI, MACD, and volume, a potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long at the close of a bullish engulfing pattern, with a stop just below the previous swing low and a target at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This aligns well with the observed price action on SEIJPY today, especially the 03:15 ET pattern. The strategy would aim to capture short-term momentum while managing risk with tight stops.