Market Overview for Sei/Yen (SEIJPY) on 2025-10-04

• Price opened at 43.96 and reached a high of 45.35 before closing near 42.76, signaling bearish momentum.
• A significant volume spike occurred at 16:45 ET as the price corrected sharply after hitting a 24-hour high.
• RSI and MACD showed overbought conditions early, followed by divergence, suggesting a shift in sentiment.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the selloff, reflecting rising volatility and uncertainty in the pair.
• Turnover remained elevated throughout the session, with no clear divergence observed between price and volume.

24-Hour Price Summary

The Sei/Yen pair (SEIJPY) opened at 43.96 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 45.35 before closing at 42.76 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04. Over the 24-hour period, the total volume traded was 397,893 contracts, with a notional turnover of approximately 17,185,914 units (based on average price of 43.22).

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a distinct bearish reversal pattern following the 16:45 ET candle, which saw a high of 45.2 followed by a close of 44.61 — forming a large bearish body. A key support level emerged around the 43.50–43.80 range, where the price found temporary stability during the overnight hours. Notable resistance was observed near 44.50–44.61, with multiple candles failing to break through this zone. A bearish engulfing pattern was identified at 17:15 ET, further reinforcing the downtrend.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed below the price between 17:00 and 18:00 ET, indicating bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average crossed below the 100 and 200-period lines, forming a death cross. The MACD histogram expanded negatively after 17:00 ET, showing increased bearish momentum, while the RSI hit overbought levels early before dropping to oversold territory by 01:30 ET, indicating strong downward pressure.

Volatility and Fibonacci Retracement

Volatility, as measured by Bollinger Bands, expanded significantly during the sharp sell-off between 16:45 and 17:15 ET, with the price closing near the lower band. The 24-hour range (45.35–42.76) saw the price retrace to the 61.8% level of the initial bullish move around 43.50–43.80. The 38.2% and 50% retracement levels coincided with key support areas, suggesting these levels could act as psychological barriers for further movement.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could focus on entering short positions when the 15-minute MACD line crosses below the signal line, particularly when the price breaks below a key Fibonacci retracement level, such as 61.8% at 43.50. This should be confirmed by volume increasing above its 10-period average, signaling conviction in the bearish move. A stop-loss could be placed above the most recent swing high, and the target set at the next Fibonacci level or a key support zone. Given the strong bearish momentum observed today, this strategy may be particularly effective in a persistently bearish environment, especially if the RSI remains in oversold territory.