Market Overview for Sei/Yen (SEIJPY) – 2025-09-27

• SEIJPY rallied to a 24-hour high of 42.65 before retreating, closing at 41.75.
• Strong volume surges confirmed the early afternoon breakout above 42.20.
• RSI overbought levels and a bearish divergence suggest potential consolidation ahead.
• Bollinger Bands tightened in the overnight session, signaling potential for a breakout or breakdown.
• A key support level emerged at 41.52 after the price rejected it twice during the session.

At 12:00 ET−1, SEIJPY opened at 41.33, rallied to a high of 42.65, and closed at 41.75 at 12:00 ET, with a low of 41.25. The pair traded on a total volume of 117,428 and a notional turnover of 4,898,643 Yen over the 24-hour period.

Structure & Formations

The SEIJPY 15-minute chart displayed a bullish breakout above 42.20, followed by a bearish reversal pattern in the form of a hanging man and a bearish engulfing pattern around 42.40–42.44. Key support levels formed at 41.52 and 41.35, both tested multiple times during the session. A notable resistance level appeared at 42.65, where price stalled and reversed on high volume. These levels may act as critical pivots for the next 24 hours.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period SMA (41.98) crossed above the 50-period SMA (42.06) in the early part of the session, confirming a short-term bullish bias. However, the 50 SMA has since crossed below the 20 SMA as price retracted, suggesting weakening momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA (41.68) and 200-period SMA (41.81) are converging, hinting at a potential support base forming in the 41.50–41.60 range.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram turned negative in the late session after a short-lived positive divergence, indicating weakening bullish momentum. RSI peaked at 69.8 before retreating to 55.4, showing moderate overbought conditions earlier and now entering neutral territory. A bearish divergence in the RSI line relative to price after 04:00 ET may suggest further downward pressure ahead.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the initial breakout, with price reaching the upper band at 42.65. However, the bands have since contracted between 41.50 and 41.75, indicating a period of consolidation. Price closed near the lower band at 41.75, suggesting a potential test of the 41.52 support level in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged to 21,287 at 22:30 ET as the price broke out of the 42.20–42.40 range, confirming the move. However, after the peak, volume gradually declined, with a significant drop after 04:00 ET, despite continued price weakness. This divergence may signal a loss of conviction among buyers. The highest notional turnover occurred at 09:45 ET, coinciding with a sharp drop from 41.66 to 41.56.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 15-minute move from 41.25 to 42.65, key levels at 38.2% (42.03) and 61.8% (41.72) were tested during the session. The 61.8% level held well at 41.72 before the price closed slightly below it, at 41.75. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the recent 41.54–42.65 move is at 42.19, which could be a potential resistance target if the pair rebounds.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy, which aims to capture short-term directional momentum using a 20/50 SMA crossover on the 15-minute chart in conjunction with volume confirmation, aligns well with the recent price action. A long entry could have been triggered at 16:30 ET with the 20 SMA crossing above the 50 SMA, and a sell signal at 04:00 ET with the 20 SMA crossing back below. However, the lack of sustained volume after the initial breakout suggests that this strategy may have a lower success rate in consolidating markets. Further refinement may include filtering for RSI divergence and Bollinger Band contraction to improve signal reliability.