Market Overview for Sei/Yen (SEIJPY) on 2025-09-26

• Price dropped sharply from 42.17 to 40.97 before stabilizing around 40.5–41.10 during the 24-hour period.
• High volatility observed, with a 40.03–42.17 range and a 4-hour drop of 1.20 (2.86%) from the peak.
• On-balance volume surged during the midday sell-off but failed to confirm a sustained bearish trend.
• RSI approached oversold conditions twice, suggesting potential near-term reversal or consolidation.
• Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the drop, indicating heightened uncertainty and possible range-bound trading ahead.

The 24-hour period for Sei/Yen (SEIJPY) opened at 41.84 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET and closed at 41.40 on 2025-09-26 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 42.17 and a low of 39.89. Total volume amounted to 283,587 units, with a notional turnover of ~11.7 million (at average rate of 41.0). Price action featured a strong bearish bias early, followed by choppy consolidation.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a sharp bearish breakdown early in the session, with the 15-minute candles forming a bearish engulfing pattern at the 42.12–41.60 level, confirming downward momentum. Later in the day, a series of lower highs and higher lows emerged around the 40.5–41.10 range, forming a possible contracting triangle or consolidation pattern. Key support levels identified include 40.53 (tested twice), 40.24 (tested once), and 39.89 (lowest intra-day level). Resistance levels include 41.17, 41.33, and 41.50. A potential doji formed at 40.96–40.96 (18:45–19:00 ET), suggesting indecision at that point.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended lower throughout the day, with price frequently below both. This suggests short-term bearish momentum. On the daily chart, while the 50 and 200-day moving averages are not fully visible from this 15-minute dataset, it’s likely the pair remains in a bearish phase on the daily time frame, given the sustained move lower and the 4-hour drop of 1.20 from the high.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line was negative throughout the session, with the histogram contracting as price approached the 40.5–41.10 range. RSI briefly approached oversold territory twice: once at 30.4 during the 40.53–40.47 drop and again at 29.8 when price reached 40.34. These readings suggest potential short-term buying interest or consolidation, but without a clear reversal candlestick pattern, the bearish bias remains intact.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtesting strategy involves entering long positions on a bullish engulfing pattern confirmed by a break of the engulfing candle’s high, with a stop loss placed below the engulfing candle’s low. Additionally, short positions are triggered on bearish divergence in the RSI and MACD histogram contraction during consolidation phases. The recent bearish engulfing pattern at 42.12–41.60, confirmed by a 15-minute close at 41.50 and a follow-through sell-off to 40.53, could be a suitable entry for shorting, with a stop loss above 42.12. This aligns with the observed price behavior, where strong bearish momentum was followed by a period of consolidation, offering potential for continuation bias.

Volatility and Fibonacci Retracements

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the 15:45–16:30 ET period, as price dropped from 41.5 to 40.47, indicating a high-volatility phase. After that, bands began to contract, suggesting possible consolidation. Applying Fibonacci retracement to the key 40.47–41.50 swing, the 61.8% level sits at 40.93, which was a minor support point during the afternoon. The 38.2% level is at 41.19, which appears to be a resistance cluster. A bounce off 40.93 could test the 41.19–41.34 zone.

Looking ahead, the next 24 hours may see consolidation within the 40.5–41.30 range, with potential for a test of 41.34 resistance or a retest of the 40.24–40.34 oversold levels. Investors should remain cautious of any false breakouts or breakdowns in the absence of clear volume confirmation.