Market Overview for Sei/Yen (SEIJPY) on 2025-09-15

• Price fell sharply from 49.79 to 46.38 over 24 hours, driven by late-day selling.
• Volatility expanded significantly in the latter half of the session, with a peak range of 0.74 within a 15-minute period.
• Volume surged to 18,460 during a sharp drop to 46.66, but remained below prior high-volume clusters.
• RSI and MACD suggest oversold conditions, but divergence between price and momentum indicators persist.
• Bollinger Bands widened post-05:00 ET, signaling increased short-term uncertainty.

Sei/Yen (SEIJPY) opened at 48.97 on 2025-09-14 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 49.79, and fell to a low of 46.27 before closing at 46.57 on 2025-09-15 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume totaled 248,894 units with a notional turnover of approximately 12,099,741 Yen.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour period featured a sharp selloff from 49.79 to 46.38, with key support levels forming around 48.64, 48.1, and 47.0. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 05:00 ET, followed by a long lower shadow suggesting temporary rejection of lower levels. A doji near 47.04 at 09:00 ET and another near 47.05 at 12:30 ET hinted at indecision in short-term sentiment. The 47.0–47.5 range appears to have become a critical battleground for near-term direction.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, indicating bearish momentum. The 50-period line sits at approximately 48.37, while the 100- and 200-period daily lines are at 48.46 and 47.93, respectively. The current price is below all these levels, suggesting that short- and medium-term bears are in control.

MACD & RSI

MACD crossed into negative territory early in the session, confirming bearish momentum, while the histogram expanded during the sharp selloff from 49.79 to 46.66. RSI dropped to 30 in the 06:00–08:00 ET window, indicating oversold conditions, but failed to trigger a meaningful rebound. This divergence between RSI and price suggests caution for short-term traders. A rebound above 47.3 may signal a potential reversal, but a strong close above 48.0 would be needed to confirm bullish momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly after 05:00 ET, with the upper band peaking at 49.3 and the lower band reaching as low as 46.8. The price spent much of the latter half of the session in the lower third of the bands, suggesting oversold conditions. A contraction in the bands during the final 30 minutes may indicate reduced volatility, but the low volume during that period suggests limited conviction behind the rebound attempt.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the sharp drop to 46.66, reaching 7,656 units. However, this was not accompanied by a proportional increase in turnover, suggesting the move may have been driven by large sell orders rather than broad market participation. Later in the session, volume remained moderate but showed no clear directional bias. The final 15-minute candle had a relatively small volume of 3,142 units, indicating low conviction in the closing price.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci retracement levels from the high of 49.79 to the low of 46.27 include 61.8% at 47.81 and 38.2% at 48.33. The 50% level at 48.03 has been a point of repeated rejection. The 47.0–47.3 range aligns with the 61.8% level, suggesting it could become a key support zone if buyers re-enter.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy description outlines a mean reversion model triggered by RSI below 30 and a close above the 50-period moving average. While RSI hit 30 in the early part of the session, the close remained below the 50-period line, negating the signal. The price did briefly close above the 50-period line during the final candle, but the low volume and divergence in momentum indicators suggest a weak trigger. In future applications, incorporating a filter for volume and divergence in MACD could improve the strategy's reliability.