Market Overview for Sei/BNB on 2025-10-11

• Sei/BNB declined 24.5% over 24 hours, with price breaking below key support at $0.000197.
• High volume spikes emerged during the collapse, confirming bearish sentiment and weak follow-through buying.
• RSI entered oversold territory near 25, suggesting potential for near-term bounce or consolidation.
• Bollinger Bands expanded during the fall, reflecting heightened volatility and uncertainty.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the high of the day, signaling strong downward pressure.

At 12:00 ET–1 on October 10, Sei/BNB opened at $0.0002247, hitting a high of $0.0002252 before dropping to a 24-hour low of $0.0001348. By 12:00 ET on October 11, the pair closed at $0.0001968. Total volume for the period was 1,382,714.2 BNB, with notional turnover reaching $280,947. The significant price drop and high volume suggest a sharp bearish reversal and loss of bullish momentum.

Structure & Formations

Price action for Sei/BNB revealed a sharp breakdown from $0.0002252 to $0.0001348 over a 3-hour window, with the most significant drop occurring in the 15:45–16:00 ET 15-minute window. A large bearish engulfing pattern appeared at the high, followed by a long bearish candle confirming the breakdown. A key support area formed around $0.000197–$0.0001968, coinciding with a prior swing low. If broken, the next support could emerge at $0.000192–$0.000193. Resistance levels are likely to remain dormant for the next 24 hours due to the current bearish bias.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages confirmed the bearish trend as price closed below both. The 50-period line, which had acted as a temporary support earlier in the day, failed to hold. RSI has plunged to oversold levels near 25, which may offer a temporary bounce or consolidation area, though this is not a strong reversal signal. The MACD remained negative throughout most of the session, with the histogram widening as the price declined, confirming the bearish momentum.

Volatility, Volume, and Turnover

Volatility spiked as price fell below $0.000197, with a large candle (15:45–16:00) showing a 5.4% drop on high volume. Notional turnover surged during this period, reinforcing the bearish bias. However, volume and turnover have since normalized, suggesting that short-term traders may be locking in profits after the sharp decline. No clear divergence was observed between price and turnover, meaning the bearish move is confirmed rather than a false breakout.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the key swing from $0.0001348 to $0.0002252, the 61.8% retracement level sits at $0.0001868, near the 24-hour close. This level may act as a temporary floor for the next 24 hours. A breakdown below the 50% retracement level at $0.0001799 could signal further bearish momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy involves entering a short position when price closes below the 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss above the recent swing high and a take-profit at the nearest Fibonacci retracement level (61.8%). Given today’s action, this strategy would have triggered a short signal just after 15:30 ET. A stop-loss above $0.0002028 would have been triggered as price dropped further. The take-profit at $0.0001868 would have been hit by the close, yielding a 7.7% return. This aligns with the observed breakdown and supports the strategy’s effectiveness in high-volatility environments.