Market Overview for Secret/Bitcoin (SCRTBTC) – September 24, 2025

• Price action remained compressed near 1.4e-06 with minimal directional bias.
• Low volume and turnover suggest weak institutional participation and lack of conviction.
• No decisive candlestick patterns emerged; market appears range-bound with shallow volatility.
• RSI and MACD showed no extreme readings, indicating balanced momentum with no overbought/oversold signals.
• Price tested a narrow Bollinger Band range, with no clear breakouts observed.

The Secret/Bitcoin (SCRTBTC) pair opened at 1.4e-06 on September 23 at 12:00 ET and closed at the same level exactly 24 hours later at 12:00 ET on September 24. The 24-hour range was between 1.38e-06 (low) and 1.57e-06 (high). Total volume for the period was 305,625.0, and notional turnover amounted to 309.15 (SCRTBTC).

The price has remained largely within a tight range, oscillating between 1.38e-06 and 1.44e-06, with the majority of the candlesticks forming doji or near doji formations. These patterns suggest indecision and lack of directional conviction. The 20 and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are nearly overlapping, and the 50-period line appears to hold as a key support level. The 100 and 200-period daily moving averages are slightly above the 1.4e-06 level, indicating a neutral to mildly bearish bias on a broader time frame.

Bollinger Bands reflect low volatility, with the price hovering near the middle band, and the upper and lower bands constricting to indicate a potential prelude to a breakout or a continuation of the sideways movement. The RSI hovered around the 50-level, with no signs of overbought or oversold conditions. MACD lines showed a flat histogram and near-zero signal line, reinforcing the lack of momentum and reinforcing the sideways action.

Volume and turnover remained consistently low throughout the period, with only a few instances of spikes, particularly around 21:45 ET and 03:30 ET. These spikes did not result in significant price moves, pointing to either low liquidity or unconfirmed attempts at price direction. Fibonacci retracements drawn from the recent swing high of 1.57e-06 to the low of 1.38e-06 show the 38.2% and 61.8% levels at 1.46e-06 and 1.43e-06 respectively. Price remains below these key levels, suggesting that a test of the 1.43e-06 retracement could be a potential near-term target for buyers if the market shows renewed interest.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy focuses on using a combination of the RSI and MACD to detect early signs of momentum shifts within a 15-minute timeframe. Specifically, the strategy looks for an RSI crossover above 30 and a bullish MACD histogram divergence, where price makes a lower low but the MACD histogram does not, as a buy signal. Sell signals are generated when RSI crosses below 70 and the MACD histogram shows bearish divergence. Given the current market environment, where RSI and MACD are both neutral, the strategy would likely remain sidelined unless a breakout above 1.44e-06 or a break below 1.38e-06 occurs. The low volume and lack of conviction in price action suggest that the probability of a successful breakout is low, and the strategy may remain untriggered for the next 24 hours.