Market Overview for Secret/Bitcoin (SCRTBTC) – October 8, 2025

• Price formed a bullish rebound off the 1.76–1.77e-06 support zone late in the session.
• Volatility spiked during a key 1.95–2.03e-06 breakout, signaling short-term momentum.
• RSI and MACD suggest overbought conditions may follow a near-term pullback.
• Volume surged during the bullish wave but has declined in the final hours.
• Bollinger Bands narrowed mid-session, hinting at a potential directional breakout.

Over the past 24 hours, Secret/Bitcoin (SCRTBTC) opened at 1.83e-06 at 12:00 ET − 1 and reached a high of 2.03e-06, with a low of 1.63e-06, closing at 1.73e-06 by 12:00 ET today. Total volume traded was 694,334.3, with a notional turnover of 1.22 BTC. The pair showed a distinct bearish reversal pattern after a sharp rally into the session high, suggesting a potential shift in sentiment.

Structure & Formations

The price of SCRTBTC formed a key support level at 1.76–1.77e-06, which held during a sharp sell-off in the late hours of October 7. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged at 1.76e-06, confirming buyers stepped in at this level. However, a bearish reversal is now visible as the price tested and closed below this zone, hinting at a possible continuation lower. A long lower wick near the 1.80e-06 level suggests hesitation by buyers during a rally, indicating potential short-term resistance.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed over twice, signaling a shift in momentum. A bullish crossover occurred during the initial rally to 2.03e-06, followed by a bearish crossover as the price retreated. The 50-period MA is now above the 20-period MA, indicating bearish bias in the short term. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is approaching the 100-period and 200-period MAs, suggesting a potential convergence and possible trend reversal if price holds below these levels.

The RSI indicator reached overbought territory during the rally to 2.03e-06 but has since corrected into neutral territory, suggesting a potential pullback. MACD remains bearish in the final hours, with the histogram showing a divergence from price action as the price rebounded but MACD failed to confirm.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded significantly during the 1.95–2.03e-06 breakout, pushing prices outside the upper Bollinger Band. The bands then compressed during the consolidation phase, signaling a potential breakout. Currently, the price is trading near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating bearish pressure. A break below the 1.70e-06 level could trigger further expansion of the bands, signaling a continuation of the downward trend.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked during the breakout to 2.03e-06 with over 150,000 units traded in a single 15-minute interval. However, volume has since dried up in the final hours, suggesting a lack of conviction by bullish traders. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, with the largest volume occurring during the initial rally and declining during the final hours. A divergence between price and volume in the last 2 hours suggests a potential bearish reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 1.76e-06 to 2.03e-06 swing, the 38.2% level is at 1.90e-06 and the 61.8% level is at 1.82e-06. Price has tested the 61.8% level twice, indicating a possible area of resistance. A break below the 1.76e-06 level could see the price test the 1.70e-06 Fibonacci extension level next.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy focuses on using a combination of RSI divergence and Bollinger Band contractions to identify high-probability reversal points. Given today’s setup, the RSI divergence on the 15-minute chart during the consolidation phase, along with a narrowing of the Bollinger Bands, could have triggered a short signal if applied at 1.78e-06. A stop-loss above 1.82e-06 would have protected against the brief rebound. This type of strategy could be effective in a range-bound or consolidating market like today's, especially if accompanied by a volume filter to confirm entry triggers.