Market Overview: Secret/Bitcoin (SCRTBTC) 24-Hour Action

• Price declines from 1.57e-06 to 1.49e-06 over 24 hours amid low-volume consolidation.
• RSI remains neutral, suggesting lack of overbought or oversold momentum.
• Volatility appears compressed, with price hovering near Bollinger Band midline.
• Macroeconomic divergence observed in late-night volume spikes.
• Key support at 1.5e-06 and resistance at 1.56e-06 show recurrent retests.

The Secret/Bitcoin (SCRTBTC) pair opened at 1.56e-06 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET, peaked at 1.57e-06, touched a low of 1.49e-06, and closed at 1.49e-06 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04. Total 24-hour volume was 149,606.9 and turnover reached ~$224.4 (based on BTC price). The pair showed moderate price movement but low conviction in directional bias.

Structure & Formations

SCRTBTC tested the 1.56e-06 resistance level multiple times without breaking through, forming a bearish trendline. A notable bearish engulfing pattern was observed in the late afternoon on 2025-10-03, confirming a short-term reversal. No major bullish patterns emerged, but the price remained within a tight range, bounded by 1.49e-06 (support) and 1.56e-06 (resistance). The 1.5e-06 level, retraced from a prior swing high, appeared to hold as a psychological barrier.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average (MA) dipped below the 50-period MA, forming a bearish crossover. The 50-period MA is currently above the price, suggesting bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA remains above the 100-period and 200-period MAs, indicating a longer-term bearish tilt. The price is below all three MAs, reinforcing a defensive posture.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a slight bearish divergence in the late evening hours, with a negative bar forming amid a price consolidation. RSI hovered in the 45–55 range for most of the day, indicating a neutral market. A brief 61.8% overbought spike occurred in early evening, but it quickly reversed. No strong overbought or oversold conditions were sustained, signaling a lack of conviction in directional trades.

Bollinger Bands

Price action remained within the Bollinger Band channels for most of the 24-hour window, with the midline acting as a magnet. In late evening, a volatility contraction was observed, with the bands narrowing before a late-night expansion. The closing price at 1.49e-06 is near the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting a potential short-term bounce but not a breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume distribution was uneven, with the largest spike occurring at 13:15 ET, where ~116,000 volume units were traded. This coincided with a minor retracement to 1.51e-06, but the price failed to hold. A second spike at 15:15 ET (~7,300 volume units) failed to push the price higher, suggesting indecision. Notional turnover (total volume × price) confirmed the largest trades during the late-night hours as price approached 1.5e-06. No clear divergence between volume and price was observed, indicating mixed liquidity conditions.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the most recent 15-minute swing (1.56e-06 to 1.49e-06), the 38.2% level at ~1.53e-06 acted as a minor resistance. The 61.8% level at ~1.51e-06 coincided with the 15:15 ET volume spike and held as a key support. On the daily chart, the 61.8% Fibonacci level from a broader 1.6e-06 to 1.48e-06 range aligns with the 1.52e-06 level, which was partially tested but not decisively broken.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current price structure and lack of directional conviction, a potential backtesting strategy could focus on a breakout-based approach using the Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci retracement levels as triggers. A long entry could be triggered on a close above the 1.51e-06 61.8% retracement level, with a stop loss placed below 1.5e-06. A short entry may be considered on a retest of the 1.5e-06 support level, with a stop above 1.51e-06. The MACD histogram could serve as a confirmation filter, with bearish crossovers strengthening the short signal and bullish crossovers reinforcing the long entry. This strategy aligns well with the observed consolidation and could be tested over multiple 15-minute candles for accuracy.