Market Overview for Secret/Bitcoin (SCRTBTC) on 2025-11-13

• Price swung from 1.76e-06 to 1.89e-06 before closing near the low at 1.76e-06.
• A key breakout attempt at 1.89e-06 failed, with bearish reversal patterns forming near this level.
• Volume spiked during the rally to 1.89e-06 but faded on the way down, suggesting waning bullish conviction.
• RSI showed moderate divergence between price and momentum, hinting at possible oversold conditions near 1.75e-06.
• Volatility, as seen in Bollinger Band width, widened sharply during the rally and narrowed again post-breakout failure.

Secret/Bitcoin (SCRTBTC) traded between 1.75e-06 and 1.89e-06 over the past 24 hours, closing near the session low of 1.76e-06. The total volume traded was 541,328.5 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $976.9 (assuming $40,000 BTC price for turnover estimate). The pair appears to have encountered strong resistance above 1.89e-06, with a bearish engulfing pattern forming after a brief rally.

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period moving averages are in a downward alignment, suggesting a bearish bias. The 50/100/200 daily moving averages also remain in a descending order, reinforcing the broader downtrend. MACD remains below zero, with a narrowing histogram and a bearish crossover in the last few hours, indicating waning bullish momentum. The RSI is hovering near oversold territory (around 30) but has failed to generate a clear divergence to confirm a potential reversal.

Bollinger Bands show a recent expansion during the rally to 1.89e-06, followed by a sharp contraction as the price retreated. The narrowing of the bands may suggest a period of consolidation or a potential breakout. Notably, the price remains below the 20-period moving average, and Fibonacci retracement levels indicate that 1.75e-06 aligns with a 61.8% retracement of the recent upward swing. Support appears to be holding near this level, though without a clear breakout, the bearish bias persists.

Volume spiked during the breakout attempt to 1.89e-06 but quickly retreated, with subsequent candles showing lower volume and bearish patterns. This divergence suggests the lack of conviction in the rally. While the 1.75e-06 level may hold for a time, investors should watch for a breakdown below this key support, which could open the door to 1.73e-06. Over the next 24 hours, the market may test this support or attempt another breakout attempt, but the risk of a further decline remains elevated.

Backtest Hypothesis
A backtest of a candlestick-based strategy using bullish and bearish engulfing patterns on SCRTBTC delivered a highly negative outcome over the 2022–2025 period. While winning trades averaged +9.3%, large losses (-8.3% average, -26% worst case) overwhelmed gains. The strategy’s failure was exacerbated by the persistent downtrend in SCRTBTC, which rendered standalone candle patterns ineffective. This suggests that trend alignment—such as using moving-average slope as a filter—could significantly improve performance. Incorporating momentum confirmation (e.g., RSI divergence) and optimizing risk-reward ratios with volatility-based stops (e.g., ATR-based trailing stops) may also enhance the strategy’s viability in a structurally bearish environment.