Market Overview for Secret/Bitcoin (SCRTBTC) - 2025-10-11

• Price declined from a high of 1.90e-06 to a low of 1.36e-06 amid increasing bearish momentum.
• Strong sell pressure emerged after the 21:30 ET candle gapped down to 1.47e-06.
• Bollinger Bands widened significantly, indicating rising volatility and potential trend continuation.
• RSI dipped below 30 in the 6-hour window, signaling oversold conditions but limited bullish reversal signs.
• Turnover surged to 5.2M BTC-equivalent in early trading, but volume declined later, hinting at waning interest.

The Secret/Bitcoin (SCRTBTC) pair opened at 1.85e-06 at 12:00 ET−1 and reached a high of 2.04e-06 before plunging to a low of 1.36e-06. It closed at 1.56e-06 by 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 1.75M contracts, while total turnover amounted to approximately 5.2M BTC-equivalent. The price action was marked by a sharp bearish correction after 21:30 ET, suggesting possible short-term bearish continuation.

Structure on the 15-minute chart revealed several key support and resistance levels, with 1.6e-06 acting as a strong intraday support after 22:30 ET. A bearish engulfing pattern appeared at the 21:30 ET candle, confirming the shift in sentiment. Doji were observed near 1.56e-06 and 1.44e-06, signaling indecision and potential consolidation. Notably, the price retested the 1.5e-06 level multiple times without breaking through, suggesting it may serve as a pivot point in the near term.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart indicated a strong bearish bias, with the 20-period MA well below the 50-period MA throughout the session. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA appeared to cross below the 200-period MA, hinting at a potential longer-term bearish trend. Price remained below both moving averages, reinforcing the bearish bias. A retest of the 50-period daily MA at ~1.65e-06 in the final hours of the session could trigger further selling pressure or attract short-covering.

MACD turned bearish after 21:30 ET, with the histogram shrinking through the evening as bearish momentum waned. The RSI hit oversold territory below 30 in the 6-hour window, though it remained within a bearish downtrend, indicating continued bearish control. Bollinger Bands showed a clear expansion during the selloff, with the price staying near the lower band for much of the session, a sign of high volatility and potential mean reversion. The next 24 hours could see a test of the 1.5e-06 level, with a break below likely to open the door for further bearish moves toward 1.45e-06.

The volume profile showed a sharp increase during the selloff, peaking at 487,748.2 contracts at 21:30 ET as the price collapsed toward 1.47e-06. Notional turnover confirmed the bearish bias, with the highest turnover occurring during the same 15-minute window. Price and turnover aligned well during the selloff, reinforcing the bearish narrative. However, volume dropped significantly after 06:00 ET, suggesting reduced conviction and the potential for a pause in the downtrend. Traders should remain cautious as volume divergence could hint at a temporary stall in the bearish move.

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the key 21:30 ET swing high (2.04e-06) to the 22:30 ET swing low (1.36e-06) showed price testing the 61.8% level at ~1.45e-06 in the final hours. This level may act as a critical support threshold. A break above 1.56e-06 could see price retesting the 50% retracement at ~1.7e-06, though this would require a significant reversal in sentiment and volume confirmation.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential short-term trading strategy could involve entering short positions on SCRTBTC at key Fibonacci retracement levels (1.6e-06 and 1.5e-06) following bearish confirmation via a bearish engulfing or doji pattern. Stops could be placed slightly above the 20-period moving average, while targets align with the next key support levels at 1.45e-06 and 1.38e-06. This approach leverages both price action and trend-following signals, with tight risk management to manage drawdowns in case of false breakdowns.