Market Overview for Secret/Bitcoin (SCRTBTC) – 2025-10-06

• Secret/Bitcoin (SCRTBTC) drifted lower over 24 hours, closing near the session low.
• Volatility remained elevated despite choppy price action and multiple failed rallies.
• Key support at 1.66e-06 held briefly, while resistance near 1.70e-06 saw limited buying.
• RSI and MACD signaled weak momentum, with RSI lingering near oversold levels.
• Volume expanded during the late-night selloff, suggesting bearish conviction.

Opening and Closing Action

SCRTBTC opened at 1.74e-06 on 2025-10-05 12:00 ET and closed at 1.67e-06 by 2025-10-06 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range was 1.77e-06 (high) to 1.65e-06 (low). Total volume for the period was 243,995.4, with a notional turnover of approximately $0.413 (based on BTC price of $60,000 as of 2025-10-06).

Structure & Formations

The pair displayed a bearish consolidation pattern over the past 24 hours, with a series of lower highs and lower lows. Key support levels are forming around 1.66e-06 and 1.65e-06, both of which held during recent selloffs. A notable bearish engulfing pattern emerged after the 20:00 ET candle (1.68e-06 to 1.65e-06) and was followed by multiple doji and bearish spinning tops, signaling weakening bullish conviction.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are in a steep bearish crossover, with the 20 MA below the 50 MA, indicating continued downward bias. Daily moving averages (50/100/200) are similarly bearish, with price trading below all three, reinforcing the bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line has remained negative for most of the 24-hour period, with the histogram showing bearish divergence as price makes lower highs while the MACD fails to confirm. RSI has been in the 20–30 range for the last 6–8 hours, indicating oversold conditions. However, a lack of meaningful bounce suggests bearish exhaustion may not be imminent.

The MACD crossover from above to below the signal line earlier in the session signaled a bearish continuation, with no short-term reversal indicators currently in place.

Bollinger Bands

Price has remained near the lower Bollinger Band for the past 10 hours, with the band width narrowing slightly during late-night trading. This tightening suggests a potential breakout or reversal could be imminent, but so far, price remains range-bound with no clear sign of follow-through.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the late-night hours (02:00–05:00 ET) as price dropped to 1.65e-06, confirming bearish conviction. Turnover during this period was notably higher than the previous 6 hours. However, price has struggled to make further lower lows despite increasing volume, indicating potential support near 1.65e-06 may be taking hold.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the most recent 15-minute swing (1.65e-06 to 1.77e-06), the 38.2% retracement is at 1.705e-06, and the 61.8% level is at 1.685e-06. Price has tested both levels multiple times but failed to break above either. A successful break above the 61.8% level could signal short-term bullish momentum, but bearish pressure remains dominant for now.

Forward Outlook & Risk Caveat

In the next 24 hours, SCRTBTC may test the 1.65e-06 level for a second time. A break below could trigger deeper bearish momentum, targeting 1.63e-06. Traders should monitor volume and RSI for signs of exhaustion, but bearish continuation is probable unless a strong reversal pattern emerges.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtest strategy could integrate a bearish breakout system triggered when price closes below the 61.8% Fibonacci level and RSI remains below 30 for two consecutive periods, with volume confirming the move. This would be followed by a stop-loss above the 50-period moving average and a take-profit at 1.63e-06. While historical data may vary, the current technical backdrop aligns well with the conditions outlined in the strategy, suggesting a higher probability of success in a short-term bearish trade.