Market Overview for Scroll/Bitcoin (SCRBTC) – 24-Hour Technical Snapshot

• Scroll/Bitcoin (SCRBTC) edged lower over 24 hours, with bearish momentum intensifying in the final 8 hours.
• Price tested key support at 2.31e-6, rebounding temporarily before resuming decline.
• RSI signaled oversold conditions, while volume surged on breakdowns, hinting at potential short-term reversal.
• Volatility expanded during the session, with Bollinger Bands widening, suggesting a possible breakout phase.

At 12:00 ET on October 4, 2025, SCRBTC opened at 2.45e-6, peaked at 2.46e-6, and closed at 2.28e-6 after hitting a low of 2.28e-6. The total traded volume over the 24-hour period was 51,844.1 BTC equivalent, with a notional turnover of $103,688.6 (based on Bitcoin price as proxy). The price action shows a gradual bearish bias, with late-day breakdowns confirming bearish sentiment.

Structure & Formations

The price of SCRBTC formed a descending channel on the 15-minute chart, with key resistance at 2.44e-6 and support at 2.31e-6. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 203000 ET on October 3, suggesting a reversal from a brief consolidation phase. Later, a doji at 014500 ET on October 4 indicated indecision, but the price continued downward after a bearish breakdown below 2.37e-6.

Moving Averages

Short-term averages (20/50) on the 15-minute chart have diverged from the price, with the 20SMA dipping below the 50SMA, indicating bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50DMA is trending downward, while the 200DMA provides strong bearish pressure if breached. The 50/100DMA crossover remains intact, supporting the continuation of the bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram has turned negative over the past 6 hours, with both the line and signal line trending downward, reinforcing the bearish bias. RSI dropped below 30 for the first time in the last 12 hours, signaling oversold conditions. However, the lack of a meaningful rebound suggests that bearish pressure remains strong and that any rally may be short-lived.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have expanded significantly, indicating increased volatility. The price has spent the majority of the session near the lower band, suggesting a consolidation phase within a bearish channel. A potential breakout below the band at 2.28e-6 would increase the likelihood of further downward movement.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during key breakdown moments, notably between 031500 and 044500 ET on October 4, confirming the bearish move below 2.36e-6. Turnover also spiked during these hours, showing strong conviction in the downward move. However, price and turnover diverged slightly in the last 2 hours, with volume tapering off despite continued price declines, suggesting weakening bearish momentum and possible near-term reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the most recent 15-minute swing from 2.46e-6 to 2.28e-6, the 61.8% level is at 2.32e-6, where the price appears to have found temporary support. A retest of this level could trigger a short-term bounce. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement level at 2.35e-6 is key for near-term resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could be to enter short positions upon a close below the 20SMA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop above the 50SMA and a target at the next Fibonacci retracement level (61.8% at 2.32e-6). This approach would aim to capitalize on the current bearish momentum while managing risk through a defined stop. Given the recent volatility expansion and RSI oversold condition, a trailing stop could be considered for positions entering in the next 24 hours.