Market Overview: Scroll/Bitcoin (SCRBTC) – 24-Hour Price and Volume Analysis

• SCRBTC declines 24h by 25.6% to 2.43e-06, breaking key support levels with bearish confirmation.
• Strong volume expansion in late ET hours, especially post-06:00 ET, suggests increased bear pressure.
• RSI and MACD signal bearish momentum with oversold territory near 30, suggesting potential for further pullback.
• Bollinger Bands show price near lower band, indicating elevated volatility and consolidation risks.
• Fibonacci retracement at 61.8% (2.51e-06) and 78.6% (2.44e-06) are key near-term support levels.

The Scroll/Bitcoin (SCRBTC) pair opened at 2.79e-06 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET and closed at 2.43e-06 on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 2.81e-06 and a low of 2.43e-06. Total volume for the 24-hour period was approximately 235,680 SCRBTC, with a notional turnover of around $589 (at average price of 2.51e-06 BTC).

Structure & Formations: The 24-hour chart displays a bearish breakdown from key horizontal resistance levels previously observed between 2.65e-06 and 2.75e-06. A significant bearish engulfing pattern formed in the early morning ET hours, indicating a strong shift in sentiment. Additionally, the price has been testing support levels at 2.49e-06 and 2.44e-06, with a doji appearing near the latter, suggesting potential short-term consolidation or reversal activity.

Moving Averages: On the 15-minute chart, SCRBTC has fallen below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 50-period MA sits at 2.67e-06, acting as a key dynamic resistance. Daily moving averages (50, 100, 200) show a broader bearish divergence, with the 200-day MA at 2.70e-06 serving as a critical long-term resistance.

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MACD and RSI: The 12,26,9 MACD crossover shows a bearish divergence with a histogram that has turned negative and is widening. RSI has dropped into oversold territory (29.4) at the close of the 24-hour window, suggesting a potential rebound in the short term. However, without a clear bullish reversal candle or volume confirmation, a continued bearish trend remains likely.

Bollinger Bands: Price action has moved into the lower Bollinger Band, with a width expansion indicating increased volatility. The 2.43e-06 close is near the lower band, reinforcing the bearish tone. A retest of the 2.49e-06 (38.2% retracement) may offer a potential entry point if bullish traders are willing to buy the dip.

Volume & Turnover: The highest volume activity occurred post-06:00 ET, coinciding with the large decline from 2.65e-06 to 2.43e-06. This aligns with a major breakdown move. Notional turnover spiked during these hours, confirming bearish conviction. Price and volume are aligned with no significant divergence, increasing the probability of a continuation of the downward trend.

Fibonacci Retracements: Recent 15-minute retracements show 38.2% at 2.57e-06 and 61.8% at 2.49e-06, with the 78.6% at 2.44e-06 forming as key support. Daily Fibonacci levels align with the 2.49e-06 to 2.44e-06 range, which appears to be consolidating as a bearish pivot point.

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Backtest Hypothesis: A strategy based on bearish engulfing patterns and RSI below 30 would have triggered a sell signal at 2.68e-06 on 2025-09-22, 03:30 ET. The stop-loss should be placed above the 2.70e-06 (200-day MA), with a target at 2.40e-06. Given the current position near the 78.6% retracement and RSI near oversold territory, a counter-trend long at 2.43e-06 with a tight stop at 2.41e-06 could offer risk-reward balance. This aligns with the identified Fibonacci and moving average levels, suggesting a potential consolidation or rebound scenario.

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