Market Overview: Scroll/Bitcoin (SCRBTC) – 2025-11-02 24-Hour Analysis

• Scroll/Bitcoin (SCRBTC) traded in a 24-hour range of 1.33e-06 to 1.69e-06, closing near intraday lows.
• Strong volume spikes occurred during late-night UTC (ET) breakouts and mid-day consolidations.
• RSI and MACD show bearish divergence with price, suggesting potential reversal signals.
• Bollinger Bands show expansion during breakout attempts, indicating rising volatility.
• Fibonacci levels align with key support and resistance on the 15-minute chart near 1.50e-06 and 1.45e-06.

The Scroll/Bitcoin (SCRBTC) pair opened at 1.33e-06 on 2025-11-01 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 1.69e-06 before closing at 1.64e-06 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-11-02. Total volume over the 24-hour window was 594,426.0 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $937,805 (at BTC price of $60,000 assumed). The price action reflects aggressive buying during late-night UTC hours followed by consolidation and bearish pullbacks in the morning.

On the 15-minute chart, key support levels emerged at 1.45e-06 and 1.39e-06, with strong rejection observed at the latter. A series of engulfing and bearish reversal patterns were seen in the final hours of the day, particularly from 10:00–11:45 ET, as the price rolled back from a high of 1.69e-06. Resistance levels at 1.62e-06 and 1.58e-06 showed notable bearish responses, confirming that the recent bullish momentum may be losing steam. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed below key resistance levels, suggesting a potential shift in trend.

MACD showed a bearish crossover during the mid-evening hours, with the histogram contracting after a short-lived bullish spike. RSI lingered in overbought territory briefly but has since fallen back into a more neutral range, signaling that recent strength may not be sustainable. The RSI and price action diverged notably in the final hours of the day, with RSI forming lower highs despite higher price peaks—this bearish divergence could hint at a near-term reversal. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the breakout attempt from 1.60e-06 to 1.69e-06, confirming increased volatility, but the price struggled to maintain these levels, closing within the lower half of the bands.

Fibonacci retracement levels aligned with several key price levels observed on the 15-minute chart, especially around 1.50e-06 (61.8% retracement) and 1.45e-06 (78.6% retracement). These levels coincided with strong volume rejection zones and price consolidation, suggesting they could serve as important psychological and technical barriers in the near term.

Looking ahead, SCRBTC may consolidate within the 1.45e-06 to 1.60e-06 range over the next 24 hours, with a risk of breaking below 1.40e-06 if bearish momentum intensifies. A retest of 1.62e-06 could provide a potential entry point for short-term traders, but caution is warranted due to diverging momentum indicators and the lack of strong bullish confirmation in the recent price action.

Backtest Hypothesis
The proposed backtest strategy centers on identifying MACD top-divergence signals, which typically occur when price reaches new highs but the MACD histogram fails to do so—a common precursor to reversals in trending markets. For SCRBTC, if such divergences can be reliably identified and mapped to known turning points, a strategy could be constructed to enter short positions at key resistance levels, with stop-loss and take-profit levels derived from Fibonacci retracements and Bollinger Band levels. However, since the automatic data pull for SCRBTC has failed due to an invalid symbol, we need to resolve the correct symbol format (e.g., SCRBTC:BINANCE or SCRBTC:BINANCE) to proceed with the backtest from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-02. Once the valid symbol is confirmed, we can extract MACD divergence dates and overlay them with the above technical indicators for validation.