Market Overview: Scroll/Bitcoin (SCRBTC) – 2025-09-19

• Price declined from 2.85e-06 to 2.76e-06, forming bearish momentum.
• Volume surged during the 09:15–10:00 ET window, followed by a price drop.
• RSI dipped below 30 during the final 6 hours, suggesting oversold conditions.
• Bollinger Band contraction occurred early in the session, followed by a sharp expansion.
• No strong reversal patterns emerged, but bearish exhaustion may be building.

Scroll/Bitcoin (SCRBTC) opened at 2.83e-06 on 2025-09-18 12:00 ET and closed at 2.76e-06 on 2025-09-19 12:00 ET, hitting a high of 2.85e-06 and a low of 2.75e-06. Total 24-hour volume was 49,102.2, and notional turnover amounted to 139.14 BTC.

The price moved in a clear downtrend throughout the session, with no significant resistance levels holding above 2.83e-06. Key support levels were observed at 2.80e-06 and 2.75e-06, with a breakdown occurring around 09:45 ET when the price dropped from 2.80e-06 to 2.78e-06. No strong bullish reversal patterns like hammers or bullish engulfing patterns emerged, though a long lower shadow was visible in the 04:45–05:00 ET candle. Doji were limited to neutral consolidation periods and did not signal a reversal.

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both remained above price, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 20 SMA crossed below the 50 SMA toward the end of the session, suggesting a potential bearish confirmation. For daily timeframes, the 50-, 100-, and 200-day MAs (calculated using 15-min data as proxies) also remained above price, with a clear trend toward lower highs and lower lows.

The MACD histogram showed a bearish divergence in the final hours of the session, with price making a low of 2.75e-06 but the MACD not confirming the move. RSI dropped below 30 in the final 6 hours, indicating oversold conditions, but no strong rebound followed. Bollinger Bands constricted tightly between 00:00–03:00 ET, followed by a sharp expansion as the price broke below key support levels. Price spent the majority of the session below the lower band, indicating increased volatility and bearish bias.

Notional turnover spiked in the 09:15–10:00 ET window, with over 4,857.3 volume units traded at 2.79e-06–2.80e-06, followed by a sharp drop as price fell to 2.76e-06. This suggests short-term accumulation may have occurred before the break. However, price failed to hold above 2.78e-06 post-break, indicating weak conviction in the short-term bounce. The divergence between volume and price suggests caution in interpreting short-term bounces as reversal signals.

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 15-minute swing from 2.85e-06 to 2.75e-06, the price reached 61.8% retracement at 2.78e-06 but failed to hold. This level may act as a short-term pivot. On daily swings, the price is near the 38.2% retracement of recent bearish cycles, suggesting potential for a minor bounce if support at 2.75e-06 holds.

Backtest Hypothesis
The described backtesting strategy focuses on identifying oversold RSI conditions below 30 combined with divergences in the MACD and Bollinger Band contractions. Using this 24-hour dataset as a sample, the conditions were largely met from 06:00–09:45 ET, with RSI dipping below 30 and a bearish MACD divergence emerging. However, the price continued to trend lower after the divergence, suggesting the strategy may need to be modified to filter out false signals. A potential refinement could involve combining RSI and MACD signals with a Fibonacci retracement filter to avoid false bounces, such as the one observed at 2.78e-06. Future testing should include a stop-loss mechanism and position sizing rules based on volume patterns to improve risk management.