Market Overview for Scroll/Bitcoin on 2025-10-03

• Price drifted higher with a key breakout above 2.45e-06.
• Volatility increased midday, followed by consolidation in the final hours.
• MACD and RSI confirmed bullish momentum but showed no overbought signals.
• Volume spiked during the 22:00–00:00 ET range, confirming price action.
• Bollinger Bands narrowed before the breakout, signaling a potential trend shift.

The SCRBTC pair opened at 2.42e-06 on 2025-10-02 at 12:00 ET and closed at 2.43e-06 on 2025-10-03 at the same time. The 24-hour high and low were 2.52e-06 and 2.43e-06, respectively. Total volume was 52,902.0 SCRBTC, with a notional turnover of approximately $131.97 (based on BTC price). The market showed a slow but steady upward bias, with a key breakout above 2.45e-06 driving much of the recent gains.

Structure and formations revealed a bullish bias on the 15-minute chart. A key breakout above the 2.45e-06 level was confirmed by a bullish engulfing pattern at 22:00–22:15 ET. This was followed by a consolidation phase with several doji and spinning tops from 04:00 to 07:00 ET, indicating indecision. The price then found support at 2.43e-06 multiple times during the day, suggesting it may act as a short-term floor.

The 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed the price staying above both, indicating a short-term bullish trend. On the daily chart, the 50- and 200-period moving averages crossed in a "golden cross" formation at 2.43e-06, reinforcing the medium-term upward trend. The price remains above the 50-day MA, further supporting the bullish narrative.

MACD turned positive in the early hours of 2025-10-03 and remained so throughout the session, with a histogram that widened during the breakout at 22:00 ET. RSI climbed from the 50–55 range to 55–60 during the session, indicating strengthening momentum without entering overbought territory. Bollinger Bands showed a slight expansion during the breakout period, with the price touching the upper band around 2.52e-06 before retracting. The consolidation phase saw the price oscillating within the bands, with a final close near the middle band.

Volume spiked during the 22:00–00:00 ET period, with the largest single candle (22:15–22:30) accounting for 1998.1 SCRBTC traded. Notional turnover increased during this time as well, showing strong price confirmation. However, from 04:00 to 07:00 ET, volume dropped while the price showed range-bound action, indicating a lack of conviction in the upward movement during that phase.

Fibonacci retracements applied to the recent 15-minute move from 2.43e-06 to 2.52e-06 showed the 61.8% level at 2.48e-06. The price found support at this level twice before continuing its upward move. On the daily chart, a 61.8% retracement of the prior 30-day swing from 2.38e-06 to 2.52e-06 would place the level at 2.43e-06, which the price has already tested and retraced from. This suggests 2.43e-06 is a key support level.

The backtest strategy focuses on a breakout confirmation system. It defines entry points when price breaks above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level with a close above the upper Bollinger Band and a bullish MACD crossover. Stop-loss levels are placed at the 50% Fibonacci retracement, while take-profit is at the 78.6% retracement or the upper Bollinger Band. Volume confirmation is required at the entry time, with a minimum 20% increase from the previous 30-minute average. This strategy aligns with the observed breakout at 2.45e-06 and the subsequent consolidation phase.