Market Overview for Santos FC Fan Token/Bitcoin (SANTOSBTC)

• Price declined from 1.627e-05 to 1.601e-05, with bearish momentum intensifying in the second half of the 24-hour period.
• RSI and MACD indicated weakening momentum, with RSI dipping into oversold territory and MACD forming bearish divergence.
• Volatility expanded in early morning, followed by contraction near the close, signaling consolidation.
• Volume spiked during key breakdowns and confirmed bearish price action, particularly between 18:00 and 19:00 ET.
• A doji formed near 1.6e-05, hinting at indecision before the final leg lower.

The Santos FC Fan Token/Bitcoin (SANTOSBTC) pair opened at 1.612e-05 on 2025-10-02 at 12:00 ET and closed at 1.601e-05 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET, recording a 24-hour low of 1.6e-05 and high of 1.657e-05. Total volume was 13,922.01 and notional turnover was 2.24 BTC. The market experienced a directional bias to the downside, particularly after 18:00 ET, amid declining momentum and key bearish candlestick patterns.

Structure & Formations

The price structure for SANTOSBTC formed a bearish breakdown pattern, with a key resistance at 1.627e-05 (rejection zone) and a strong support level at 1.6e-05, where a doji emerged. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 1.62e-05, confirming the continuation of the downtrend. A key pivot point at 1.612e-05 acted as a psychological level, where price consolidated briefly but failed to reclaim higher ground.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have both turned bearish, with price closing below both. The 20SMA is at ~1.617e-05, while the 50SMA is at ~1.619e-05, indicating a bearish crossover has occurred. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-day moving averages suggest a longer-term bearish bias, with price closing near the 200SMA as a potential floor for near-term support.

MACD & RSI

The RSI has fallen into oversold territory, below 30, indicating a potential short-term bottom or a need for a rebound. However, price has continued lower despite the RSI signaling oversold conditions, suggesting possible exhaustion. The MACD has turned negative and is trending lower, confirming bearish momentum. The MACD line is below the signal line with a bearish divergence forming, which could indicate a potential short-term bounce but not a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have recently seen a contraction in the final hours of the 24-hour window, suggesting a potential breakout or breakdown in the near term. Price has spent the majority of the period trading below the lower band, signaling bearish pressure. However, the recent contraction suggests a reduction in volatility, which could precede a directional move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during key breakdowns, especially between 18:00 and 19:00 ET, confirming the bearish price action. Notional turnover increased in tandem with volume, particularly during the 18:00–19:00 ET window, validating the strength of the downside move. A divergence appears in the final hours of the period, with volume declining even as price continues lower, which could signal exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent swing high (1.657e-05) to the swing low (1.6e-05), key levels include 1.638e-05 (38.2%), 1.619e-05 (61.8%), and the 1.6e-05 pivot. Price has tested the 61.8% level at ~1.619e-05 and failed to hold it, confirming the bearish bias. A potential rebound might target the 50% retracement at ~1.628e-05 before facing resistance again.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described involves entering a short position on confirmation of a bearish divergence in the MACD and RSI, combined with a bearish engulfing pattern. A stop-loss is placed above the recent swing high, and a target is set at the next Fibonacci retracement level. Given the current conditions—bearish divergence in RSI and MACD, confirmed by volume spikes and key bearish candlestick patterns—this strategy is well aligned with the current setup. A short bias appears warranted, provided price remains below 1.627e-05 and volatility does not expand unexpectedly.