Market Overview for Santos FC Fan Token/Bitcoin (SANTOSBTC) - 2025-09-26

• Price traded in a narrow range for most of the day, with a late surge in buying pressure
• Key resistance tested and confirmed above 1.618e-05
• Volume surged during key upswings, suggesting accumulation
• RSI showed no extreme overbought or oversold conditions
• Bollinger Bands tightened before a breakout attempt in the early morning

The Santos FC Fan Token/Bitcoin (SANTOSBTC) pair opened at 1.592e-05 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-25 and closed at 1.631e-05 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-26. The high reached 1.643e-05 and the low touched 1.569e-05 over the 24-hour period. Total volume across the 15-minute candles was 8,024.52 BTC, and notional turnover amounted to approximately $1,276.58 (assuming a $60,000 BTC price).

Over the last 24 hours, SANTOSBTC traded within a relatively narrow range until late in the night, when a breakout attempt occurred. A key resistance level around 1.618e-05 was tested and briefly held before a late surge pushed prices higher. The structure of the candles suggests accumulation pressure, with several bullish reversal patterns forming in the early morning hours. A notable engulfing pattern emerged during the 06:00–06:15 ET window, indicating a short-covering rally. No strong bearish reversal patterns were observed.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed SANTOSBTC closing above both the 20- and 50-period MA lines, indicating a mild bullish bias over the past day. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits just below the 1.600e-05 level, while the 200-period MA lags slightly behind, reinforcing the idea that buyers have taken control in recent sessions. The price remains well above its 200-day MA, suggesting long-term bullish momentum has not dissipated.

MACD for the 15-minute timeframe crossed into positive territory in the early morning and remained above the signal line, indicating bullish momentum. RSI hovered between 50 and 60, lacking a strong signal of overbought or oversold conditions. Bollinger Bands showed a tightening phase in the pre-breakout phase, with price breaking out of the upper band after 06:00 ET. This suggests that volatility increased during the breakout and that the market was responding to new buying pressure.

Volume was particularly active during key upswings, with large buying blocks seen in the 06:00–06:45 ET time frame. Notional turnover aligned with volume spikes, showing strong conviction in the upward move. A divergence between rising price and lower volume was not observed, suggesting that the buying pressure was genuine. The price’s ability to hold above 1.612e-05 despite late bearish tests indicates the strength of the recent move.

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the key swing low at 1.569e-05 and swing high at 1.643e-05 showed the 1.618e-05 level as the 61.8% retracement, which acted as a strong support-turned-resistance. The 1.625e-05 level, a 78.6% retracement, appears to be the next resistance, with a potential correction likely if buyers fail to hold the 1.618e-05 level.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy outlined is designed to capitalize on breakout patterns following a consolidation period, using Bollinger Bands as a volatility filter. The premise is that a price breaking out of a narrowing Bollinger Band range with increasing volume and strong RSI momentum is a high-probability setup for continuation. This aligns with the observed price action during the late-night to early-morning breakout, where all three conditions were met. A backtest over the past 90 days would likely show a win rate of 60–70% for such setups, with an average risk-to-reward ratio of 1:1.5. The strategy would place a stop loss just below the 1.594e-05 level and a take profit at 1.643e-05, which was the previous high.