Market Overview for The Sandbox/Tether (SANDUSDT) on 2025-10-01

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• The Sandbox/Tether (SANDUSDT) saw a 24-hour range from 0.2580 to 0.2781, closing near 0.2737 with above-average volume.

• Price broke key resistance levels in the morning before consolidating in a bearish consolidation pattern in the afternoon.

• RSI suggested overbought conditions in the mid-morning, while Bollinger Bands showed increased volatility and price near the upper band.

• Turnover diverged from price in the last 4 hours, hinting at potential distribution.

• A sharp 15-minute bullish engulfing pattern formed at 0.2660, followed by a failed bearish reversal, indicating indecision.

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The Sandbox/Tether (SANDUSDT) opened at 0.2582 on 2025-09-30 12:00 ET and rose to a high of 0.2781 before closing at 0.2737 on 2025-10-01 12:00 ET. The pair saw a 24-hour volume of 9.91 million tokens and a notional turnover of $2,713,000. Price action showed early strength with a sharp 15-minute bullish engulfing pattern at 0.2660, followed by a consolidation phase after midday.

Key support levels are identified at 0.2650 (50% Fibonacci retrace from the morning high), 0.2620 (38.2%), and 0.2590 (20-period MA on the 15-min chart). Resistance is at 0.2755 (recent high), 0.2780 (intraday peak), and 0.2810 (61.8% Fibonacci level). A bearish consolidation pattern and an overbought RSI at 72 suggested a correction in the afternoon, with price closing near the upper Bollinger Band. Volatility expanded significantly during the peak rally.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-min chart crossed bullish in the early morning but flattened by afternoon, signaling waning momentum. MACD crossed into positive territory but with a shrinking histogram, indicating weakening bullish conviction. RSI crossed over 70 mid-morning, suggesting overbought conditions, and closed around 56, indicating a pullback may not be complete. Bollinger Bands widened during the rally and narrowed in the late afternoon, hinting at a potential reversal if support at 0.2650 holds.

The 15-minute volume profile showed a sharp spike during the 08:45–09:00 ET rally, with turnover peaking at ~$450,000. This was followed by a divergence in price and volume as the asset corrected, with price falling below 0.2755 but volume failing to confirm a bearish breakout. The final 4 hours showed declining turnover despite continued volatility, raising questions about distribution or fading retail interest.

A bearish consolidation pattern with overbought RSI and wide Bollinger Bands suggest short-term uncertainty. The key resistance at 0.2755 and support at 0.2650 could be tested over the next 24 hours. Investors may watch for a break below 0.2650 as a signal of deeper correction, but a retest of 0.2755–0.2780 could still occur if buyers return.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy suggests entering a long position on SANDUSDT when a bullish engulfing pattern forms on the 15-min chart and RSI crosses back below 70 after a short overbought phase. A stop-loss is placed below the 20-period moving average, and a take-profit is set at the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the most recent 15-minute swing. Given the morning pattern and RSI behavior, this approach would have entered a long at ~0.2660 with a target near 0.2750 and a stop at 0.2630. Backtesting this pattern over the past 60 days could offer insights into its reliability in volatile, low-volume environments.