Market Overview for The Sandbox/Tether (SANDUSDT) — 2025-09-26

• The Sandbox/Tether (SANDUSDT) declined by 4.6% over the last 24 hours, closing near a 15-minute low of $0.2580.
• A bearish breakdown occurred after midday ET, with increasing volume and widening spreads.
• RSI dipped into oversold territory, while MACD turned negative, confirming bearish momentum.
• Volatility remained elevated, with price testing Bollinger Band lows multiple times.
• A bullish reversal failed at $0.2620, suggesting ongoing bearish control.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-26, The Sandbox/Tether (SANDUSDT) opened at $0.2656, reached a high of $0.2662, and closed at $0.2580 after hitting a low of $0.2551. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 5,439,472, while notional turnover stood at approximately $1,416,413. Price action reflected a continuation of bearish momentum, with key support and resistance levels showing mixed strength.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the last 24 hours revealed multiple bearish signals. A breakdown from the $0.2630–0.2640 resistance cluster occurred around 17:30 ET, followed by a test of the $0.2580 support level. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed at 17:15 ET, confirming the shift in sentiment. Additionally, a doji appeared at 06:45 ET, signaling indecision, but bears continued to dominate. A failed bullish reversal at $0.2620 in the early morning suggests that short-term sellers are still in control. Key resistances now appear at $0.2610 and $0.2635, while $0.2560 and $0.2545 could offer next support levels.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both crossed below key swing highs during the early afternoon, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA (at ~$0.2615) remains above the 200-period MA (~$0.2590), indicating a longer-term consolidation phase. The 100-period MA is at ~$0.2605, suggesting that a retest of this level could trigger short-term profit-taking or renewed bearish pressure.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative in the afternoon, with the signal line crossing below the histogram, indicating a potential acceleration in the downward move. The RSI dipped below 30 in the late morning, suggesting the market may be oversold, though without a strong rebound, this could be a false signal. A bearish crossover between the 14-period and 9-period RSI lines also reinforced the downward trend, while the MACD histogram showed diverging bearish momentum in the last two hours.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed moderate volatility, with the upper band reaching $0.2635 and the lower band settling near $0.2560. Price tested the lower band multiple times, especially between 18:00 and 19:30 ET, and remained near the lower third of the band for much of the day. The contraction in the band width during the overnight hours indicated a period of consolidation before the breakdown. The current price sits just above the lower band, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce, though bearish bias remains intact.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to over 590,243 at 17:30 ET during the breakdown and again at 08:15 ET during a retest of the $0.2600 level. Notional turnover mirrored this, with the largest spikes corresponding to the most significant price moves. However, volume failed to confirm a bullish reversal at $0.2620 in the early morning, suggesting that buying pressure remains weak. A divergence between price and volume in the final two hours of the 24-hour window also suggests a potential exhaustion in the downward move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent swing from $0.2662 (high at 16:15 ET) to $0.2551 (low at 18:00 ET), price found support at 61.8% (~$0.2574), which aligns with the lower Bollinger Band and key moving averages. A retest of this level could see renewed buying interest. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement of the recent bearish leg (~$0.2615) may act as a near-term resistance or pivot point for reversal attempts.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described in the additional input focuses on identifying high-probability reversal patterns using Fibonacci levels and volume confirmation. Specifically, it targets situations where price retests a 61.8% Fibonacci level with increasing volume and a bullish candlestick formation, such as a hammer or bullish engulfing. In today’s data, a potential setup was observed around 22:00 ET when price tested $0.2594 with a bullish hammer. However, the volume failed to confirm the reversal, suggesting the strategy may have flagged a false signal. A successful test of this approach would require both a clear candlestick pattern and a sharp volume increase upon retesting a key level.