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Summary
• Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern near 0.03110, suggesting short-term downward bias.
• Volatility expanded as price dropped from 0.03118 to 0.02988, with increasing turnover at key lows.
• RSI remains in oversold territory, indicating potential for a near-term bounce but limited upside unless volume confirms.
• Bollinger Band contraction observed near 0.03010, signaling possible range expansion or breakout.
• 50-period SMA on 5-minute chart now below the 20-period, reinforcing bearish momentum for the past 6 hours.
At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-12-15, Sahara AI/Tether (SAHARAUSDT) opened at 0.03104, hit a high of 0.03118, a low of 0.02988, and closed at 0.02930 by 12:00 ET on 2025-12-16. Total volume reached 9.7 million, with a notional turnover of $292,000 over the 24-hour period.
Structure & Key Levels
Price tested a key resistance near 0.03118 before forming a bearish engulfing pattern around 0.03110, followed by a steady decline. A strong support zone emerged between 0.03010 and 0.03000, with a potential short-term base forming around 0.02930. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is near 0.02970, offering a potential reversal target if the trend pauses.
MACD & RSI Dynamics
The 12:00 ET close triggered a bearish MACD crossover, with the line dipping below the signal line and remaining in negative territory. RSI is currently in oversold territory around 28, suggesting limited downside momentum but insufficient strength to confirm a reversal. Momentum remains bearish unless price breaks above 0.02970 with confirmation on volume.
Bollinger Band & Volatility Trends
Volatility expanded throughout the session, with Bollinger Bands widening below 0.03050 and above 0.03100. The 12:00 ET close near 0.02930 places the price below the lower band, signaling a potentially overextended short-term move. A contraction near the 0.03010 support level may precede a range-bound or breakout phase.
Volume and Turnover Behavior
Volume and turnover increased significantly during the sharp drop below 0.03050, especially around 00:0000 and 09:1500 ET. However, no significant volume followed subsequent bounces, indicating weak conviction in buying attempts. Divergence between price and volume suggests bears remain in control unless a large-volume reversal forms.
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Fibonacci Retracements and Trend Context
On a 5-minute chart, the 61.8% retracement level of the last bearish swing is near 0.02970, aligning with a daily Fibonacci support. The 50-period SMA on the 5-minute chart is now below the 20-period line, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 200-period SMA remains above current price levels, indicating a longer-term bearish trend.
Sahara AI/Tether appears to be in a consolidation phase after a sharp 3.5% decline, with technical indicators pointing to cautious bearish momentum. A rebound above 0.02970 could offer a short-term reprieve, but a break below 0.02910 may accelerate further selling. Investors should watch for divergence between price and volume in the next 24 hours as a potential warning of a deeper correction.
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