Market Overview for Sahara AI/Tether (SAHARAUSDT) – 2025-09-25

• SAHARAUSDT traded lower over 24 hours, closing near a key support level.
• Volatility increased mid-day, with a sharp drop observed post 22:00 ET.
• Momentum indicators suggest bearish exhaustion and potential rebound.
• Volume spiked during the selloff, indicating increased conviction in downside.
• Price remains below key moving averages, signaling bearish bias for near term.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-24, Sahara AI/Tether (SAHARAUSDT) opened at $0.08139. Over the past 24 hours, it traded as high as $0.08148 and as low as $0.07598, before closing at $0.07731 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-25. The 24-hour total volume amounted to 35.1 million tokens, with a notional turnover of $2.73 million.

Structure & Formations

Price action on the 15-minute chart showed a bearish breakout below key support at $0.08036 and $0.07933. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed around 22:15 ET, followed by a deep correction. A doji appeared around 05:30 ET, suggesting indecision. Critical resistances include $0.08062 and $0.08110, while strong supports are seen at $0.07736 and $0.07618.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute timeframe, price closed below both the 20SMA and 50SMA, reinforcing bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50DMA sits at $0.0805, the 100DMA at $0.0812, and the 200DMA at $0.0817. The price remains below the 200DMA, indicating a long-term bearish trend. A crossover above the 50DMA could signal a short-term reversal.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line during the sharp sell-off, confirming bearish momentum. RSI dropped to 30 during the selloff, suggesting oversold conditions. While RSI is starting to show a potential rebound, it has yet to reach neutral levels. A move above 50 may indicate recovery in buying pressure.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the 22:00–00:30 ET period, with the bands widening significantly. Price closed near the lower band at $0.07731, indicating oversold conditions. A rebound toward the mid-band or upper band could follow if buying interest returns, but traders should watch for a breakdown below the lower band as a warning sign.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the selloff, particularly between 22:00 ET and 02:00 ET, with the largest volume spike at $0.08036. Notional turnover also increased, confirming bearish conviction. However, volume began to wane after 06:00 ET, suggesting a potential exhaustion in the move lower.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the most recent swing high at $0.08148 and low at $0.07598, the 61.8% retracement level is at $0.0788. The price currently rests near the 38.2% level at $0.0775. A move back toward $0.0788 could trigger a short-term bounce, while a break below $0.07618 (78.6% level) would signal further weakness.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the price action and the formation of bearish engulfing and doji patterns, a backtesting strategy could focus on short-term mean reversion from oversold RSI conditions. A potential entry point could be placed at $0.07698, with a stop-loss just below $0.07618 to manage risk. A take-profit target could be set at $0.0788, aligning with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The strategy would rely on volume confirming the reversal or divergence to signal a shift in sentiment.

Outlook & Risk

While the immediate outlook remains bearish, with price testing key support levels, there are signs of potential short-term recovery. A rebound toward $0.0788 could be expected if buyers re-enter the market. However, a breakdown below $0.07618 would increase the likelihood of a deeper correction. Investors should monitor volume and RSI for signs of exhaustion or recovery. As always, trading near key support and resistance levels carries elevated risk, particularly with high volatility in play.