Market Overview: SafePal/Tether (SFPUSDT) – Volatile 24-Hour Surge

• SafePal/Tether (SFPUSDT) surged from $0.3804 to $0.3943 in 24 hours, closing near its intraday high.
• Volatility and volume spiked during the 08:15–09:30 ET window, signaling strong buyer interest.
• A bullish breakout occurred above prior resistance at $0.3866, with confirmation from closing above the level.
• RSI reached 65, suggesting rising momentum but not yet overbought, indicating potential for further gains.
• Bollinger Bands widened, reflecting increased market uncertainty and diverging expectations.

SafePal/Tether (SFPUSDT) opened at $0.3804 on 2025-10-25 at 12:00 ET and surged to a high of $0.3943 before closing at $0.3933 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-10-26. The pair traded within a range of $0.3804 to $0.3943, with a total volume of 324,370 and notional turnover of approximately $124,105. The price action reflected strong buying pressure late in the session, particularly between 08:15 and 09:30 ET, where it surged from $0.3866 to $0.3897.

The 15-minute chart shows a key resistance level at $0.3866 was decisively broken, with the price closing above it and confirming a bullish breakout. A bearish rejection was also seen at $0.3804, where the price tested support but rebounded. A potential support area is forming near $0.3893–$0.3884, with a large candlestick confirming strength. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages are converging upwards, suggesting continued bullish momentum. A 50-period EMA appears to be a dynamic support line during the session, reinforcing the upward bias.

MACD lines showed a positive crossover at the start of the 24-hour period and remained above the signal line, reflecting sustained bullish momentum. RSI climbed from 55 to 65, indicating strong buying pressure but not yet overbought. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the 08:15–09:30 ET rally, with the price closing near the upper band, suggesting continuation bias. The bands have since contracted, pointing to a potential consolidation phase ahead.

A Fibonacci retracement of the move from $0.3804 to $0.3943 shows key levels at $0.3893 (38.2%) and $0.3884 (61.8%), both of which were tested and held as support. On the 1-hour chart, the 200-period moving average is acting as a key floor, currently at $0.3845. The 100-period moving average crossed above the 200-period, confirming a longer-term bullish trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtest strategy seeks to identify and act on breakout signals based on SFPUSDT's 15-minute OHLC data. The core idea is to detect when the closing price exceeds the highest high of the previous N bars, with N typically set to 10–20. If this breakout is confirmed, the signal is to enter a long position and hold for 15 minutes. A trailing stop or fixed stop loss could then be applied to manage risk. However, as noted, the OHLC data required for building this logic is currently unavailable through the standard API. To proceed, we recommend retrieving raw 15-minute OHLC bars manually and calculating the breakout condition programmatically. Alternatively, narrowing the backtest window or using a coarser time interval may allow for more stable data retrieval.