Market Overview for SafePal/Tether (SFPUSDT) – October 4, 2025

• Price declined from $0.53 to $0.5133 amid rising bearish momentum and declining volume.
• Key support tested at $0.5130–$0.5100 with oversold RSI conditions suggesting potential reversal.
• Volatility expanded after a consolidation phase, with Bollinger Bands widening and price testing lower boundaries.
• A 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern and multiple dojis emerged during critical retracement levels.
• Turnover diverged from price during the final leg down, signaling caution ahead of a potential bounce.

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-10-03, SafePal/Tether (SFPUSDT) opened at $0.5247, peaked at $0.53, and closed at $0.5133 by 12:00 ET. The pair traded in a 24-hour range of $0.5103 to $0.5300 with total volume of 858,104 and notional turnover of $431,591. Price declined in a bearish fashion, with key technical levels and divergences emerging.

Structure & Formations

Price tested multiple Fibonacci retracement levels between $0.5261 and $0.5133 (61.8% and 78.6% of a prior rally), with consolidation forming around $0.5226 before a sharp bearish move. Notable patterns include a 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern at $0.5298–$0.5261, a doji at $0.5206, and a bullish reversal doji near $0.5133 suggesting short-term exhaustion.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below the 20- and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the bearish bias. The daily chart shows price still below the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages, suggesting a longer-term downtrend remains intact.

MACD & RSI

The RSI fell into oversold territory (30–34) during the final 15-minute bars, hinting at a potential bounce. MACD remained negative with bearish divergence, but the histogram has flattened, suggesting momentum may be stalling.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded as the bands widened, with price reaching the lower band at $0.5133 and showing signs of potential bounce. A contraction phase had preceded the breakdown, indicating a potential reversal could be near.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the sharp bearish move from $0.5298 to $0.5226 and remained elevated near $0.5133, signaling conviction. Turnover diverged from price in the final 30 minutes, with declining turnover despite falling prices—indicating short-covering or fading bearish bias.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key levels at $0.5261 (61.8%) and $0.5248 (78.6%) provided initial resistance during the breakdown, with the 0.5133 level forming a short-term floor. A potential bounce could test the $0.5150–$0.5165 zone, which represents a 38.2% retracement of the recent decline.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could focus on identifying bearish engulfing patterns on the 15-minute chart followed by a retest of the breakout level. For example, the pattern at $0.5298–$0.5261 saw a confirmation candle and a sharp drop. A strategy entering a short position at the close of the engulfing candle, with a stop above the high and a target at the next support level, could have captured a significant portion of the decline. Incorporating RSI divergence as a filter could enhance the signal-to-noise ratio, especially in volatile pairs like SFPUSDT.