Market Overview for SafePal/Tether (SFPUSDT)

• Price declined from a 24-hour high of $0.5104 to close at $0.4734 amid growing bearish momentum.
• Volatility expanded significantly during the last 12 hours, with a sharp drop from $0.5038 to $0.47.
• RSI reached oversold territory and MACD turned bearish, signaling potential near-term exhaustion in the rally.
• Volume spiked during the selloff, indicating intensified participation from market participants.
• A key support level at $0.47–$0.48 is now at risk, with a potential test of psychological support at $0.45 ahead.

SafePal/Tether (SFPUSDT) opened at $0.4955 on 2025-10-09 12:00 ET and reached a high of $0.5104 before closing at $0.4734 at 12:00 ET the following day. The 24-hour volume was 1,437,153 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $716,606. A pronounced bearish reversal unfolded, driven by increasing selling pressure and technical exhaustion.

Structure & Formations

The price action over the 24-hour period displayed a key bearish reversal pattern, including a long lower shadow and a large bearish body near the end of the session. Resistance levels were evident at $0.505–$0.510, which were tested and then decisively broken. A strong support cluster formed at $0.47–$0.48, with a potential test of $0.45 expected if the current downtrend continues. A doji pattern appeared near $0.508–$0.509, suggesting indecision before the selloff began.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both crossed below the price, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily timeframe, the 50- and 200-day moving averages have diverged significantly, indicating a widening bearish trend. The 100-day MA is also trending lower and remains above the current price, indicating bearish momentum may persist in the short term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative and crossed below the signal line, confirming a bearish momentum shift. RSI reached an oversold level of 28 by the close, indicating potential for a near-term bounce, though not a reversal. The divergence between price and RSI was minimal, suggesting the selloff was broadly in line with expectations. However, RSI may remain in oversold territory for some time, reducing the likelihood of a strong rebound.

Bollinger Bands

Price volatility expanded significantly during the selloff, with the bands widening to over 10% in the last 6 hours. The price has closed near the lower band at $0.4734, suggesting a potential pause in the bearish move. A contraction in the bands is unlikely in the near term unless the trend reverses. Traders may monitor the upper band at $0.505 as a potential target for a bounce, though a breakout is not expected.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically during the selloff, with the most active candle occurring at $0.4901–$0.48, where 191,970 units were traded. This volume confirmed the bearish move rather than contradicting it. Notional turnover reached a 24-hour peak of $716,606, indicating broad participation in the selloff. A divergence between volume and price was not observed, suggesting the bearish momentum was supported by strong liquidity.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 15-minute swing from $0.5104 to $0.4734, the 61.8% level is at $0.487, and the 38.2% level is at $0.494. Price is currently near the 61.8% retracement level from the last bearish move. On the daily chart, the 200-day Fibonacci level remains at $0.45, indicating a potential long-term target if the bearish trend continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong bearish momentum and the oversold RSI level, a potential trading hypothesis could be to look for a short-term bounce from the current support levels at $0.47–$0.48. A buy on the dip strategy, triggered upon a retest of the 38.2% Fibonacci level ($0.494), could be tested using tight stop-loss orders below $0.475. The MACD and 20-period MA may also be used as confirmation tools for a potential short-covering trade in the next 24–48 hours, though the trend remains bearish and this should be treated as a low-risk countertrend opportunity.