Market Overview: SafePal/Tether (SFPUSDT) – 24-Hour Analysis and Strategy Insights

• SafePal/Tether (SFPUSDT) closed at 0.3326 after a 24-hour low of 0.318 and high of 0.3558.
• Price declined sharply from 0.3558 to 0.318 between 15:30–16:00 ET, signaling bearish momentum.
• Volume spiked during this drop, confirming bearish conviction.
• RSI reached oversold levels near 30, suggesting potential for a short-term rebound.
• Bollinger Bands showed expansion, indicating increased volatility in the last 12 hours.

SafePal/Tether (SFPUSDT) opened at 0.3474 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at 0.3326 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-03. The 24-hour range was 0.318 to 0.3558. Total volume reached approximately 969,000, with a notional turnover of $318,405. The asset displayed bearish exhaustion, particularly during the 15:30–16:00 ET period, with a sharp drop and high volume reinforcing the move lower.

Structure and formations suggest key support levels at 0.3300 and 0.3230, with resistance at 0.3450 and 0.3550. A bearish engulfing pattern was visible around the 0.351–0.3495 zone, followed by a series of bearish hammers and spinning tops near 0.3330–0.3350. A long lower shadow at 0.331–0.3325 indicates a potential short-term support zone forming in the 0.3300–0.3325 range, which could be tested in the next 24 hours.

Short-term moving averages (20- and 50-period on 15-min chart) crossed below the price during the 15:30–16:00 ET drop, confirming bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50- and 200-day moving averages are aligned bearishly, with the price well below both. The 100-day MA is approaching the 0.3340–0.3350 area, which may act as a short-term resistance. Price may consolidate in the 0.3300–0.3350 range in the next 24 hours.

MACD turned negative and the histogram showed a bearish divergence in the last 4–5 hours, with RSI dropping below 30 and entering oversold territory. This suggests a possible near-term rebound but remains within a larger bearish trend. Bollinger Bands expanded during the sharp sell-off, with the price nearing the lower band at 0.3230. A bounce off the lower band could target 0.3300–0.3330, though a break below 0.3230 may target 0.318–0.3150, with volume spikes likely confirming further downside.

Fibonacci retracements on the recent 0.318–0.3558 swing identified key levels at 0.3342 (38.2%), 0.3292 (61.8%), and 0.3230 (100%). Price has stalled near the 61.8% retracement and may test the 38.2% level next. On the daily chart, retracement levels from the broader 0.3230–0.3558 move point to 0.3383 (38.2%) and 0.3454 (50%) as potential resistance if a reversal occurs.

Backtest Hypothesis
The short-selling strategy tested on SPY, using RSI(14) > 70 as a signal, produced mixed results—cumulative return of -1.29% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.04. Applied to SFPUSDT, a similar strategy may perform better in capturing short-term bearish momentum, especially during overbought RSI conditions and key Fibonacci levels. However, asymmetry in gains vs. losses suggests the strategy needs tighter exits, such as RSI < 30 or fixed stop-loss levels. Enhancing robustness with trend filters (e.g., price below 200-period MA) or tighter time frames may improve performance in a volatile asset like SFPUSDT.