Market Overview: SafePal/Tether (SFPUSDT) on 2025-10-12

• SafePal/Tether (SFPUSDT) traded in a 24-hour range of $0.3714–$0.4075, closing lower amid bearish momentum.
• A sharp decline from $0.4075 to $0.3792 in the first half of the 24-hour period marked a key distribution zone.
• Volatility expanded significantly during the drop, with Bollinger Bands widening and RSI hitting oversold levels.
• Volume spiked during the late-night rebound, suggesting potential short-term buying interest.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the high, confirming the recent breakdown below key psychological resistance.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-12, SafePal/Tether (SFPUSDT) opened at $0.3848, reached a high of $0.4075, and a low of $0.3714, before closing at $0.3848. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 1.93 million contracts, with turnover reaching $744,500, showing heightened volatility and price sensitivity during key price swings.

Structure & Formations

Price action on the 15-minute chart revealed a bearish bias with several key levels in focus. A breakdown below the $0.4003–$0.4022 consolidation zone led to a sharp move down, with the $0.395 and $0.385 levels acting as temporary support. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the 18:45 ET candle on the previous day, confirming the bearish shift in sentiment. A doji formed near $0.3792, hinting at potential short-covering or a temporary pause in the downtrend. Key resistance levels now include $0.388, $0.395, and $0.403, with support at $0.378, $0.373, and $0.367.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs both crossed below key swing lows, reinforcing bearish momentum. The 50-period EMA remains below the 100-period and 200-period on the daily chart, indicating the pair remains in a mid-term bearish trend. Price appears to be testing the 50-day EMA at approximately $0.384, with potential to retest the 200-day SMA at $0.374 if the move continues downward.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line, and both remain in negative territory, suggesting bearish momentum remains intact. The RSI dropped to 30 during the decline, signaling oversold conditions, but failed to produce a strong rebound from that level. A failure to close above $0.390 could lead to further bearish divergence in the RSI, especially if volume continues to trend higher on down days.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility on the 15-minute chart showed a significant expansion during the initial selloff, with the Bollinger Band width increasing by ~200%. Price is currently trading near the lower band, reinforcing the oversold condition. A move back toward the middle band may require a bounce from $0.378–$0.380, though a retest of the lower band could trigger renewed bearish selling pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the early morning rebound, with the 12:00–13:00 ET window showing the highest trading activity. This suggests accumulation from buyers attempting to short-term stabilize the pair. However, notional turnover remains skewed to the downside during the initial selloff, indicating distribution by large sellers. A divergence between rising volume and flat price action could signal a potential short-term bottom.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 15-minute retracement from the $0.4075–$0.3792 swing shows the 0.382 level acting as a potential floor, which has been partially tested. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level at $0.374 is the next key support to watch, with a breakdown potentially leading to $0.365. A retest of the 38.2% level at $0.388 could trigger a short-term bounce if buyers step in.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve a short-entry setup on a breakdown of the $0.388 level with a stop above the $0.390–$0.392 resistance cluster. This setup would be reinforced by a bearish divergence in RSI and a bearish MACD crossover, indicating confirmation of bearish momentum. A target could be set at $0.374 with a stop-loss placed just above the $0.390 level to manage risk. This aligns with the current structure and could be tested on a 15-minute to 1-hour timeframe for high-probability entries.