Market Overview: SafePal/Tether (SFPUSDT) on 2025-10-04

• SFPUSDT closed lower at $0.5026 after a 24-hour range of $0.5017–$0.5300, showing bearish momentum.
• Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern near the 15-minute high, indicating strong selling pressure.
• Volatility increased overnight, with a late-day breakdown below key support at $0.5150.
• RSI is in oversold territory but lacks confirmation from price-volume action.
• High turnover during the 06:00–07:30 ET window suggests increased positioning or profit-taking.

The 24-hour SFPUSDT pair opened at $0.5247 on 2025-10-03 12:00 ET, peaked at $0.5300, and closed at $0.5026 on 2025-10-04 12:00 ET. The total volume was 1,007,852.5 units, with a notional turnover of $515,800. Price action shows a strong bearish bias, especially from 17:15 ET, when a large bearish candle with high volume signaled a shift in sentiment.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern at the 15-minute high of $0.5300, suggesting a strong rejection of higher levels. A key support zone formed between $0.5150 and $0.5100, where the price consolidated for several hours before breaking down. A morning doji near $0.5133 hinted at indecision but was later negated by further selling. The breakdown below $0.5150 marked the start of a steeper decline, confirming bearish momentum.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs are bearishly aligned, with price below both. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period SMAs show a bearish bias, with price trading well below the 200-period SMA, indicating a long-term bearish trend. The recent price action suggests a continuation of the downtrend as long as key support levels do not hold.

MACD & RSI

MACD lines are in negative territory with bearish crossovers during the key breakdown phase. The histogram showed a clear divergence as price continued to fall, confirming bearish momentum. RSI is now in oversold territory at ~28, but without a rebound in volume or a bullish candlestick confirmation, a bounce may be short-lived.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a moderate expansion overnight as volatility increased, with price trading below the lower band during the early morning hours. This suggests increased short-term bearish pressure and could indicate a potential bounce or a continuation of the downtrend depending on volume and order flow. The current price is comfortably within the band range but lacks a strong directional bias.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the breakdown at $0.5150 and again during the morning consolidation phase, with the 06:00–07:30 ET period showing the largest notional turnover. Price and turnover action aligned during this phase, suggesting increased selling or profit-taking. A divergence appeared in the early morning, where price continued to fall while volume declined, indicating a potential exhaustion of sellers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels were used to analyze the recent 15-minute swing from $0.5019 to $0.5300. The 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels at $0.5213 and $0.5145 were key reference points. Price failed to hold at both levels, confirming bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the recent downtrend aligns near $0.5070, which may act as a potential support or trigger further selling pressure.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for SFPUSDT could involve a short-biased setup when a bearish engulfing pattern forms at a key Fibonacci level and is confirmed by a bearish MACD crossover and a volume spike. Traders might consider entering a short position at the close of the engulfing candle and target the next Fibonacci level as a profit target, with a stop-loss placed just above the pattern’s high. This approach aligns with the observed bearish structure and momentum indicators.