Market Overview for SafePal/Tether (SFPUSDT) on 2025-09-17

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• SafePal/Tether (SFPUSDT) closed slightly lower at $0.4560 after opening at $0.4611, with a 24-hour high of $0.4688 and low of $0.4559.
• A bearish bias emerged during the overnight session, marked by a large bearish candle and declining momentum in the RSI.
• Volatility expanded during the early hours of the morning, coinciding with a price pullback from the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the prior bullish leg.
• Turnover remained stable but diverged from price during the late afternoon, suggesting a potential shift in sentiment.
• The Bollinger Band indicator widened, reflecting increased market uncertainty ahead of the next 24-hour window.

Opening and Closing Summary

SafePal/Tether (SFPUSDT) opened at $0.4611 on 2025-09-16 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.4560 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET, with a high of $0.4688 and a low of $0.4559 over the 24-hour window. Total traded volume amounted to 368,488 units, while notional turnover reached $170,163. The pair exhibited a bearish bias throughout the session, especially during the Asian and European hours.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed multiple bearish engulfing patterns following the morning high of $0.4688. A notable doji formed around $0.4641, indicating indecision between buyers and sellers. A key support level formed near $0.4590–$0.4600, which held during the afternoon session, while resistance at $0.4646–$0.4650 appears to have capped further upward momentum.

Moving Averages and MACD / RSI

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed in a bearish crossover pattern late morning, reinforcing the downward trend. MACD remained in negative territory with a bearish divergence, while RSI dipped below 30, indicating oversold conditions. A bullish reversal could occur if RSI rebounds above 40 without breaking the key support at $0.4590.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands showed an expansion in volatility during the early morning hours, with price reaching the upper band at $0.4688 before retreating. By late afternoon, price settled near the lower band, signaling a potential oversold bounce. However, without a clear break above the 20-period MA, further consolidation is likely.

Fibonacci Retracements and Volume Divergence

A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.4646 acted as a key resistance, preventing further upward movement. Price eventually broke below the 38.2% level, reaching as low as $0.4559. Volume increased during the initial leg up but declined during the subsequent sell-off, suggesting weakening bearish conviction. A reversal could occur if volume picks up on a retest of key support levels.

Backtest Hypothesis

Using a strategy that combines a 50-period MA crossover with RSI divergence could generate early signals of trend exhaustion or reversal. A bearish signal may have been triggered at the 2025-09-16 19:45 candle, as RSI began to diverge from price despite a strong volume leg. A trailing stop loss placed below each swing low may have captured most of the 24-hour decline. A backtest of this approach would likely show positive risk-reward ratios in volatile, low-volume environments like SFPUSDT.