Market Overview: Rune/Tether USDt (RUNEUSDT) on 2025-09-06

• Rune/Tether USDt opened at $1.188 and closed at $1.175 after a 24-hour range between $1.174 and $1.204.
• Price action showed a bearish reversal pattern at the high of $1.204, followed by a consolidation below key resistance.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions above $1.201, which later reversed downward, confirming bearish momentum.
• Volume was concentrated in the $1.18–$1.195 range, with a notable spike during the $1.203–$1.194 pullback.
• Bollinger Bands expanded during the midday rally, indicating a period of heightened volatility.

Rune/Tether USDt (RUNEUSDT) opened at $1.188 on 2025-09-05 and traded as high as $1.204 before closing at $1.175 on 2025-09-06. Total volume reached 732,253 units, with a notional turnover of $859,655 (calculated as volume × average price). The pair experienced a bearish reversal pattern after reaching a 24-hour high, and key resistance around $1.19–$1.201 failed to hold.

Structure & Formations

The price found support at the $1.183–$1.187 range multiple times, suggesting a short-term floor. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the 15-minute $1.203–$1.194 reversal, confirming a shift in sentiment. A doji near $1.196 and another at $1.182 signaled indecision and possible turning points. The overall structure shows that the $1.191–$1.195 range may be a key area to watch for retracements.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed to the downside during the afternoon, reinforcing the bearish bias. The daily chart showed the 50-period moving average at $1.192 and the 200-period at $1.196, both above the close. This suggests that while the short-term trend is bearish, a retest of the 50-day MA could trigger a short-term bounce.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed to the bearish side in the afternoon, confirming a momentum shift. RSI peaked at 70 during the $1.203 high and then fell below 40, signaling overbought conditions and a possible bearish continuation. The current RSI reading of 35 suggests that the pair may test the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $1.181 before finding a new equilibrium.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the midday rally, with the high of $1.204 breaching the upper band. Price then consolidated within the bands between $1.185 and $1.196 in the late afternoon, indicating a potential contraction phase. The closing price at $1.175 sits near the lower Bollinger band, suggesting that a rebound may be imminent.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was concentrated between $1.185 and $1.195, with a spike during the $1.203–$1.194 reversal. Turnover confirmed this price action, with the most liquidity seen at the $1.19–$1.195 range. Divergences were noted between volume and price during the early morning hours, with lower volume during price declines. This may suggest a possible exhaustion in the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels from the $1.182–$1.204 swing, the 61.8% level is at $1.190, while the 38.2% level is at $1.185. Price has tested both levels multiple times, with the 38.2% level acting as a temporary support. A break below $1.183 could see the pair heading toward the 23.6% retracement at $1.180.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could focus on the bearish engulfing pattern observed near $1.203 and the subsequent 15-minute MACD crossover. A sell entry at the close of the engulfing candle with a stop above $1.203 and a target at the 38.2% Fibonacci level would align with the observed technical conditions. This setup could be tested against historical data to validate its effectiveness in similar volatility environments.