Market Overview for Rune/Tether (RUNEUSDT): 24-Hour Downtrend Confirmed

• Rune/Tether (RUNEUSDT) closed lower at 1.136, down from the 24-hour high of 1.22.
• A bearish bias emerged as price dropped below key moving averages and RSI entered oversold territory.
• Volatility surged with a 20-hour low of 1.132 and a high of 1.221, showing aggressive bearish momentum.
• Bollinger Bands expanded, and volume spiked during the breakdown, confirming bearish sentiment.
• A key support level is forming around 1.13–1.14, with a Fibonacci 61.8% retracement at 1.155 as a possible near-term resistance.

Opening and Price Action

Rune/Tether (RUNEUSDT) opened at 1.21 on 2025-10-06 12:00 ET and closed at 1.136 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-10-07. The 24-hour high of 1.22 was reached on 2025-10-06, and the low of 1.132 was recorded on 2025-10-07. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 5,168,000, with a turnover of approximately $6,310,000, reflecting heightened bearish activity.

Structure & Formations

The price of RUNEUSDT has shown a consistent bearish bias, forming a large bearish engulfing pattern on the 15-minute chart near the $1.22 high. A key support level is forming near 1.13–1.14, with a bearish breakdown confirmed below the 1.17–1.18 area. A doji formed at the 1.132 low, indicating exhaustion in the short-term bearish move. The Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the recent swing high to low is at 1.155, which appears to act as a potential resistance.

Technical Indicators and Momentum

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart have both been decisively breached, reinforcing the bearish trend. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 EMA all show a downward slope, confirming the longer-term bearish bias. The RSI has dropped into oversold territory at 28, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce. MACD lines have also turned negative, with the histogram showing a bearish divergence with price. Bollinger Bands have expanded, indicating increased volatility, and the price is currently sitting near the lower band, a sign of bearish momentum.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume has spiked during the breakdown, with a surge in trading activity observed between 2025-10-07 14:00–15:45 ET, confirming bearish conviction. The largest single-candle volume was recorded at 522,245.2 at 15:15 ET, aligning with a sharp drop to 1.141. Notional turnover also increased sharply during this period, indicating strong bearish participation. Price and turnover are aligned, suggesting a continuation of the downtrend unless a large-volume buy wall appears near 1.13–1.14.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves entering a short position when price closes below the 1.17–1.18 support level with a confirmation candle that shows a bearish engulfing pattern and a closing RSI below 30. A stop-loss can be placed above the 1.18–1.20 resistance zone, and a take-profit target is set at the 61.8% Fibonacci level of 1.155. This setup would aim to capture the continuation of the bearish momentum observed in the past 24 hours, with a clear risk management framework to protect against a potential reversal if price shows signs of rejection near 1.13–1.14.