Market Overview for Rune/Tether (RUNEUSDT) – 2025-11-12

Summary
• Price closed at 0.804, up from 0.791 after a volatile 24-hour session with a high of 0.812 and a low of 0.762.
• Volume surged to 1.458431 million, signaling heightened participation and a potential turning point.
• A key 61.8% Fibonacci level at ~0.787 appears to offer short-term support amid downward swings.

Rune/Tether (RUNEUSDT) opened at 0.791 on 2025-11-12 and closed at 0.804 following a volatile 24-hour session. The pair touched a high of 0.812 and a low of 0.762, with a total traded volume of 1.458431 million and a notional turnover of ~1.18 million. The price action indicates a struggle for control between bullish and bearish forces.

On the 15-minute chart, the structure shows a series of bearish engulfing and doji patterns in the early hours, followed by a recovery in the late ET afternoon. Key resistance levels are forming near the high of 0.812 and 0.809, while key support levels are found at 0.787 (61.8% Fibonacci) and 0.775. The price appears to have bounced off the 61.8% level multiple times, suggesting a potential short-term floor.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are converging, with the 20-period line crossing above the 50-period line in the late ET session—a potential golden cross and bullish signal. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is above the 100- and 200-period MAs, indicating a slightly bullish bias in the longer term. However, the recent sharp drop below the 50-period MA suggests caution.

MACD appears to have turned positive in the latter part of the session, confirming a short-term bullish momentum. RSI is currently in neutral territory at around 54, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions. Bollinger Bands are widening, indicating increased volatility—price is currently near the upper band, suggesting a potential short-term pullback. A contraction may follow before any meaningful move occurs.

Volume and turnover saw a sharp increase around the 5–6-hour mark post-open, with volume spiking to over 300k in the candle ending at 05:15 ET. This coincided with a price rebound from a 61.8% Fibonacci level. Notional turnover also spiked at that point, confirming price action. The volume and price were aligned in that period, suggesting genuine buying pressure. However, in the following hours, volume declined while price remained elevated, indicating possible divergence and caution ahead.

Fibonacci retracements applied to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.812 to 0.762 suggest critical levels at 0.787 (61.8%) and 0.796 (38.2%). The price appears to have found support at 0.787 and is testing the 38.2% level. If it breaks through 0.796 with confirmation volume, it may signal a short-term reversal. On the daily chart, the same 61.8% level is likely to be a key watch point for further directional bias.

The MACD Golden Cross—used in the backtest strategy—is a strong buy signal, and when paired with a 5-day holding rule, it appears to have a consistent but modest return profile. The strategy’s low Sharpe ratio and high drawdown indicate that it is exposed to market volatility. While the strategy has a positive total return, it may be better suited for risk-tolerant or diversified portfolios. The recent Golden Cross observed in the late ET session could align with this strategy, but traders should monitor the 5-day exit and overall context to manage expectations.