Market Overview for Rune/Tether (RUNEUSDT) as of 2025-11-09

Summary• Rune/Tether surged to a 24-hour high of $0.93 before retracting to $0.786, showing strong volatility.• Price closed at $0.803 after a sharp rise post-04:15 ET, driven by heavy volume.• Key resistance appears near $0.81–$0.83, while support is likely near $0.795–$0.80.• RSI moved from oversold to overbought territory, indicating possible short-term momentum.• Bollinger Bands show a recent expansion, suggesting increased market uncertainty.

The Rune/Tether (RUNEUSDT) pair opened at $0.791 at 12:00 ET–1 and reached a high of $0.93 by 04:45 ET. It closed at $0.803 at 12:00 ET after dipping to a low of $0.786. Total volume for the 24-hour period was approximately 16.8 million RUNE, and turnover reached nearly $13.9 million, reflecting heightened trading activity as the price tested key resistance levels.

Over the last 24 hours, Rune/Tether exhibited a pronounced bullish reversal following a sharp decline into the early morning. The price action from 04:15 to 05:00 ET saw a massive volume-driven rally, with a candle forming a strong green body and a long lower wick, indicating rejection of bearish pressure. This suggests strong buying interest at lower levels. The formation of a bullish engulfing pattern and a potential morning star pattern adds technical validation to the recovery. A 20-period and 50-period EMA on the 15-minute chart crossed above, reinforcing the upward bias for the near-term.

The 20-period EMA sits at $0.801 and the 50-period EMA is at $0.804, indicating that the short-term trend is aligned with the current price direction. On the daily chart, the 50-period EMA is at $0.807, and the 200-period EMA is at $0.798, showing that Rune/Tether has moved into a position where it could continue to attract buyers if it holds above the 50 EMA. A bullish crossover or a test of the 50–200 EMA zone could trigger further buying or profit-taking.

MACD is in positive territory, with a rising histogram and a bullish crossover of the MACD line above the signal line, reinforcing momentum. RSI is at 63 as of the 24-hour close, having moved from oversold to overbought levels earlier in the session, suggesting possible exhaustion of the rally unless a new catalyst emerges. Bollinger Bands have expanded significantly, reflecting heightened volatility, with the price sitting near the upper band during the peak rally and retracting into the middle band. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the $0.786–$0.93 swing is at $0.845, which may serve as a key psychological level for the next phase.

Backtest Hypothesis
To evaluate the effectiveness of this strategy, a backtest could be constructed using daily candles (1-day bars) from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-08. A long position would be triggered when a bullish MACD bottom divergence is confirmed and RSI(14) is ≥ 70. The position would be exited when RSI(14) drops below 70. The MACD bottom divergence is defined as a situation where price makes a lower low but the MACD line makes a higher low, followed by a bullish crossover of the MACD line through the signal line. This hypothesis could be tested using close prices, with full notional capital allocated to each trade and no additional risk controls, given the exit is based on RSI.