Market Overview for Rune/Tether (RUNEUSDT) - 2025-11-06

Summary
• Price declined to 0.721 after testing key support at 0.741.
• Increased volatility seen in second half of cycle with 0.74–0.73 range compression.
• Volume surged in final hours, confirming breakdown below 0.74.

RUNEUSDT opened at 0.755 on 2025-11-05 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.721 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-06. The price reached a high of 0.766 and a low of 0.721, with total volume of 1,407,024.0 units and a turnover of 1,042,679.8 USDT in the 24-hour period.

Structure & Formations

RUNEUSDT displayed a bearish continuation with key support at 0.741 being decisively broken on 00:15 ET and again on 10:15 ET, confirming a structural breakdown. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed around 04:45–05:00 ET, followed by a long lower shadow at 05:15 ET, hinting at short-covering but failing to sustain recovery.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA (0.756) and 50SMA (0.754) showed a bearish crossover late in the day. On the daily chart, the 50DMA (0.761), 100DMA (0.763), and 200DMA (0.768) all acted as overhead resistance, reinforcing the bearish bias as price closed below all three.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative and remained bearish, with the signal line crossing below zero around 03:00 ET. RSI fell sharply into oversold territory below 30 during the final hours, with no immediate rebound, suggesting exhaustion but not necessarily a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility initially constricted between 0.74 and 0.735 before expanding sharply after the breakdown below 0.741. The close at 0.721 fell well below the 2σ lower band, indicating extreme bearish momentum and elevated risk for further extension.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in the final 4 hours (21:00–01:00 ET), with the largest single 15-minute volume spike at 15:45 ET (138k units). Notional turnover also increased disproportionately during the final 3 hours, confirming the breakdown below 0.741. Price and turnover were aligned in bearish confirmation.

Fibonacci Retracements

A key 61.8% retracement level from the 0.755–0.766 rally was seen near 0.752, which failed to hold. A 38.2% retracement at 0.746 also showed bearish pressure. On the daily chart, the 0.618 level at 0.750 appeared to act as a psychological barrier.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recurring significance of the 0.741 support level, a backtesting strategy could be constructed to identify how frequently and effectively RUNE/USDT has bounced from or broken through this level historically. The 0.741 support, as observed today, acted as a dynamic trigger for both stop-loss and algorithmic sell pressure, potentially leading to extended bearish moves. A robust backtest would need to incorporate volume, RSI divergence, and MACD signals to assess the predictive value of this level. This could help refine strategies for automated trading or risk management around similar support levels.