Market Overview for Rune/Tether (RUNEUSDT) on 2025-11-03

• Rune/Tether (RUNEUSDT) fell below key support near 0.846, signaling bearish momentum.
• Price closed 24 hours at 0.812, down from 0.853, with high volatility from 0.866 to 0.758.
• Volume surged to 207,320.8 during a sharp drop to 0.758, indicating aggressive selling.
• MACD and RSI confirmed oversold conditions, while Bollinger Bands reflected expanded volatility.
• Divergence between price and turnover suggests caution for near-term continuation or reversal.

Rune/Tether (RUNEUSDT) opened at 0.850 on 2025-11-02 12:00 ET, peaked at 0.866, and dipped to a low of 0.758 before closing at 0.812 on 2025-11-03 12:00 ET. Total volume over the 24-hour window reached 207,320.8, with a total turnover of 159,593.9. The price action shows a significant bearish shift, marked by sharp declines and increased volatility.

Structure and formations on the 15-minute chart reveal key support and resistance levels. The 0.846–0.852 range acted as a critical battleground, where price repeatedly tested without breaking decisively. A notable bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 0.861–0.860, signaling a potential trend reversal. Later, a long lower shadow at 0.812 suggested a possible short-term bounce, though the overall bearish momentum remains intact.

Moving averages show that the 20-period and 50-period lines have crossed below key support levels, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period lines are in a death cross, indicating a stronger downtrend. Bollinger Bands have widened dramatically during the sharp drop to 0.758, highlighting increased volatility. Price currently sits near the lower band, suggesting potential oversold conditions. MACD has turned negative, with a bearish crossover, and RSI has dipped below 30, confirming short-term oversold territory.

Volume and turnover data highlight divergences between price and activity. The largest volume spike occurred during the 15:30–15:45 ET session, when price fell from 0.811 to 0.758 on a volume of 207,320.8. This suggests aggressive selling pressure. However, turnover did not rise proportionally during the final rally from 0.758 to 0.812, indicating weaker conviction in the bounce. This divergence raises questions about whether the current move represents a bear trap or a consolidation before a deeper decline.

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the 0.758–0.866 range highlight key levels. The 61.8% retracement at ~0.820 may offer temporary resistance, while the 38.2% retracement at ~0.834 could act as a short-term ceiling. On the 15-minute chart, intraday swings also show retracements near 0.816 and 0.820, suggesting possible reversal zones.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the technical patterns and signals observed—particularly the MACD death cross, bearish crossovers, and Fibonacci retracements—a backtest could explore the performance of a strategy that enters short positions upon confirmation of a death cross and exits at key Fibonacci levels or when RSI exits oversold territory. The strategy would require defining the exact timing rules (e.g., 15-minute vs. daily MACD crossovers), the holding period, and risk controls (e.g., stop-loss levels).

A robust backtest should also incorporate a basket of assets for comparison, such as Rune/Tether (RUNEUSDT), Ethereum (ETHUSDT), and Bitcoin (BTCUSDT), to assess whether the observed patterns are unique to Rune or part of a broader bearish wave in the crypto market. Metrics such as average return, maximum drawdown, and hit rate would offer insight into the viability of the strategy.