Market Overview for Rune/Tether (RUNEUSDT) on 2025-10-12

• Rune/Tether (RUNEUSDT) fell sharply in the early hours before consolidating near key support levels.
• Volatility expanded sharply during the selloff but has since contracted, signaling a potential pause in momentum.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed on the 15-minute chart as price dipped below 0.870.
• Volume surged during the decline but has since moderated, with no signs of a short-covering rebound.
• RSI dipped into oversold territory below 30, suggesting a possible short-term reversal may be in play.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-12, Rune/Tether (RUNEUSDT) opened at 0.891, traded between 0.840 and 0.910, and closed at 0.905. Total 24-hour volume was ~12.5 million RUNE, with notional turnover exceeding $9.1 million. A sharp selloff occurred during the early hours, followed by a consolidation and partial recovery in the latter half of the day.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a bearish engulfing pattern during the early hours as the pair fell from 0.891 to 0.870. This was followed by a consolidation phase, with price bouncing off the 0.857–0.861 support range. A bullish reversal is in play near 0.865, marked by a series of tight-ranging candles and a reversal from oversold RSI. The 0.897–0.901 resistance area is next in line should the upward move continue.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were both bearish during the selloff but have begun to flatten as price stabilizes. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits near 0.875, and the 200-period MA at 0.867, both suggesting a potential base is forming. Price currently sits above both key moving averages, hinting at a possible short-term bullish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bullish in the final hours, with the histogram showing a positive divergence from the selloff low. RSI has moved back above 50 and is currently at 58, indicating renewed buyer participation. While the selloff pushed RSI into oversold territory (below 30), the quick rebound suggests strong near-term support is in place.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility widened during the selloff, with price dropping below the lower band at 0.857–0.861. Since then, price has returned to the middle band and is now hovering around the upper half of the channel. The contraction in band width after the selloff may signal a period of consolidation before the next directional move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the sharp selloff in the early hours, peaking at over 500,000 RUNE traded in a single 15-minute window. However, volume has since diminished, with no signs of short-covering activity or accumulation. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, with a peak of ~$450,000 during the selloff, followed by a pullback. No divergence has formed between price and volume at this stage.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 0.902–0.857 swing, price has bounced from the 61.8% retracement level (~0.865–0.867). This level has held well multiple times during the consolidation phase, suggesting strong structural support. The next target on the rebound would be the 78.6% retracement at ~0.885, followed by the 100% level at ~0.897.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential short-term trading strategy could involve a mean-reversion setup based on the bounce from the 61.8% Fibonacci level and the oversold RSI. A long entry could be placed upon a close above 0.867 with a stop loss below 0.860. The target would be the 78.6% retracement at ~0.885, with a time horizon of 4–6 hours. This setup aligns with the observed structure, including a bearish engulfing pattern followed by a consolidation and bullish reversal. Further confirmation from the MACD and volume profile could enhance the signal quality.