Market Overview for Rune/Tether (RUNEUSDT) – 2025-10-11

• Rune/Tether (RUNEUSDT) dropped from ~1.12 to ~0.89 on a sharp 15-minute selloff before consolidating.
• MACD turned negative while RSI showed oversold conditions by 0.643, suggesting potential for a rebound.
• Volatility spiked in the early hours with a massive 2.6M volume candle, followed by choppy range trading.
• Price is now in a tight consolidation phase near 0.89–0.90, with key support at 0.87 and resistance at 0.905.
• Bollinger Bands show recent contraction, hinting at a potential breakout in the near term.

Overview

Rune/Tether (RUNEUSDT) opened at 1.115 on October 10 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 1.121 and a low of 0.55, and closed at 0.895 on October 11 at 12:00 ET. The pair experienced a sharp selloff in early hours, dropping from ~1.12 to ~0.643, before gradually recovering. Total trading volume reached 34,606,197.5 and notional turnover hit approximately $28,964,988.62 (calculated using average price and volume).

Structure & Formations

The price action displayed a bearish breakdown from a prior consolidation range following a large bearish candle with an open of 1.085 and a close of 1.006, signaling aggressive selling. This was followed by a sharp decline into oversold territory, where a long lower wick and indecision candles at the 0.87–0.89 range indicated potential support. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged in the early morning as the price rose from 0.88 to 0.902, showing some buyer interest. However, price failed to hold above 0.905, suggesting that the short-term resistance is intact.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both well below the current price, indicating that the pair has reentered a potential short-term recovery phase. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period moving averages show a bearish alignment with the 200SMA acting as a strong resistance below the current price level, which could cap upside gains unless volume picks up.

MACD & RSI

MACD has turned bearish with a negative histogram, reflecting fading bullish momentum. RSI reached a low of ~36 during the selloff, entering oversold territory, which may set the stage for a bounce. However, the lack of a strong reversal pattern or a follow-through rally suggests that the bearish bias may still hold unless RSI crosses above 50 with confirmation from price.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have shown a recent contraction, particularly in the early morning hours, which is often a precursor to a breakout. Price has since remained within a tighter range, hovering around the mid-band. A break above the upper band could validate a short-term rally, while a break below the lower band would reaffirm bearish control.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically during the early hours, especially on the 21:00–21:15 ET candle, which had a volume of 2,696,028 and a close of 1.006, confirming the sharp sell-off. However, turnover volume has since declined, and recent candles have shown low volatility and indecision. Divergence is observed between price and volume during the consolidation phase, suggesting weaker conviction in the current range.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci retracement levels on the 15-minute chart show 0.87 as the 38.2% and 0.89 as the 61.8% level following the sharp drop from ~1.12 to ~0.643. These levels have acted as temporary support. On a larger daily chart, the 0.90 level is the 38.2% retracement from the recent high of ~1.12, indicating potential near-term resistance if buyers step in.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions on a bullish engulfing pattern at the 0.88–0.89 level, with a stop-loss below the 0.87 support. Given the RSI’s oversold condition and the recent Bollinger Band contraction, a breakout above 0.905 with confirmation from a close above that level could signal a short-term reversal. This approach would aim to capture a potential bounce while managing risk with a defined stop.