Market Overview for Rune/Tether (RUNEUSDT) on 2025-09-25

• Price declined 12.08% over 24 hours amid bearish momentum and volume surges.
• A key support zone formed near 1.137–1.139, while resistance clusters at 1.148–1.152.
• Volatility expanded as price traded within Bollinger Bands, with a 20-period contraction preceding the breakdown.
• RSI reached oversold territory, suggesting a short-term bounce may be possible.
• Turnover spiked near 1.15 and 1.13, confirming key inflection points.

Rune/Tether (RUNEUSDT) opened at 1.198 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET, peaked at 1.200, and closed at 1.137 by 12:00 ET the following day. The price declined by approximately 12.08%, with total 24-hour volume of 3,464,389.7 and turnover of 4,075,673.85 USDT. The session was marked by bearish continuation and significant price compression after the initial 5-hour window.

Structure & Formations

The price action displayed a bearish continuation pattern throughout the day, with a key support zone forming near 1.137–1.139. A 1.127 low during the 15-minute chart suggested a possible short-term bottom. Notable bearish candlestick patterns included a hanging man near 1.157 and a gravestone doji at 1.143. The price then found a temporary floor at 1.134, which could serve as a near-term support for the next 24 hours.

Moving Averages and Momentum

Short-term moving averages (20/50-period) on the 15-minute chart showed bearish alignment, with the price consistently below both. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 EMA lines were also bearish, reinforcing the downtrend. The 20-period MA dipped below the 50-period MA, signaling a possible further decline. MACD remained in negative territory with a narrowing histogram, while RSI dipped into oversold territory near 28, suggesting a small possibility of a short-term bounce.

Volatility and Volume Analysis

Volatility expanded significantly after the price broke below the 1.152–1.148 range. Bollinger Bands reflected a 20-period contraction around 1.144, which preceded the sharp decline. Volume surged as the price dropped below key levels, confirming the bearish breakdown. Notional turnover spiked at 1.15 and again near 1.134, confirming liquidity clusters and potential reversal zones. However, the divergence between price and volume at the end of the session suggests traders are cautious ahead of potential follow-through selling.

Fibonacci Retracements

The price decline from the 1.198 high to the 1.134 low on the 15-minute chart aligned with Fibonacci levels. The 38.2% retracement level was near 1.166, and the 61.8% level was at 1.142. The price held above the 61.8% level during the final hour, suggesting short-term support at 1.142 may be critical. For the daily chart, the 61.8% level from a previous leg lies at 1.129, which may be the next test zone for the pair.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy involves entering short positions when the price breaks below a key Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level and when RSI enters oversold territory, confirmed by a volume surge. This was observed near 1.143, where the price broke below the 61.8% level with a bearish candle and an associated volume spike. If the strategy is applied, an initial stop-loss could be placed above the 38.2% retracement level at 1.152, with a target near 1.134. This aligns with the observed structure, making it a viable hypothesis for a short-term bearish approach.