Market Overview for Rune/Tether (RUNEUSDT) - 2025-09-21

• Rune/Tether (RUNEUSDT) closed below its 24-hour high amid bearish price consolidation.
• A key support level emerged near 1.265, showing resilience after a sharp decline.
• Volume spiked during the 9:30–10:30 ET session, coinciding with a price low.
• RSI suggests oversold conditions, hinting at potential short-term bounce.
• Volatility expanded during the 9–10 ET window, indicating heightened trading activity.

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-09-21, Rune/Tether (RUNEUSDT) opened at 1.281 and closed at 1.263 after reaching a high of 1.284 and a low of 1.253 over the 24-hour period. Total volume was 1,135,506.7, and notional turnover amounted to 1,445,344.4. The pair experienced a clear bearish trend during the early hours of 2025-09-21, with renewed buying pressure appearing later in the day.

Structure & Formations

Price action formed a bearish flag pattern between 1.284 and 1.265, with a significant breakdown occurring around 1.253. A doji near 1.268 at 12:00 ET suggests indecision and potential reversal. Key support levels include 1.265 (tested twice) and 1.262 (first support break), while resistance levels are at 1.275 and 1.278. A bullish engulfing pattern appears near 1.263 at the end of the 24-hour window, suggesting a possible short-term rebound.

Moving Averages and Indicators

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below the 20- and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the bearish bias. Daily moving averages (50, 100, 200) are bearishly aligned, with the 200-period line acting as a long-term floor. MACD remained negative throughout the session, with a weak bullish crossover at the end. RSI hit oversold territory near 30 after the 9:30 ET dip, indicating potential for a countertrend bounce.

Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci Levels

Volatility expanded significantly between 9:30–10:30 ET, pushing the bands wider and indicating heightened uncertainty. Price closed near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the 1.284–1.253 swing, suggesting a possible pause before further movement. The 1.265 support level coincides with a key 61.8% retracement level and appears to be a critical area to watch in the next 24 hours.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked at 9:30–10:30 ET, with a turnover of over 150,000 units, coinciding with the price dip to 1.253. A divergence between volume and price movement occurred during the 10:30–11:45 ET window, where volume declined despite price continuing lower. This could signal weakening bearish momentum. The final 15-minute candle at 12:00 ET showed increased volume, confirming the bullish engulfing pattern’s validity.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed bearish flag pattern and the 1.265 support level, a potential short-term reversal strategy could involve a long entry near 1.263 with a stop-loss below 1.26. This would align with the bullish engulfing candle and RSI hitting oversold levels. A target could be placed near 1.27–1.272, based on the 38.2%–50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline. This strategy would aim to capture a countertrend bounce within a larger bearish trend.